Serie A 2026-2027: Lazio vs Cagliari Prediction - 1 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lazio

Home Team
72%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
11%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +1.2

Why the Model Leans Lazio

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lazio
Defense +7.0 Lazio
Chance creation (xG data) +5.8 Lazio
Attack +5.0 Lazio
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.2 Lazio

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 86% for Lazio. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lazio attack & chance creation +6.5 Over
Cagliari defense +5.3 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +2.0 Over
Cagliari attack & chance creation +2.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Lazio W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 6 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)

Cagliari L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Monza (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

xG (avg) 2.09
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 2

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.68
xGA (avg) 2.01
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are favoured to win at 72%, with a draw at 16% and a Cagliari win at 11%. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage, stronger defending and better chance creation all favour Lazio. They have conceded seven goals in nine league games, compared with Cagliari’s 13, and Lazio’s recent home performances have shown their ability to create chances in front of goal. Lazio’s 6-2 away win at Sassuolo is the latest in a run of three victories, after a 2-1 home win over Parma and a 3-0 win away to Juventus. Cagliari have lost three in a row: most recently 2-4 away to Roma, after a 0-2 home defeat to Bologna and a 0-4 loss away to Monza. Cagliari have averaged 1.2 goals away from home against 1.7 away expected goals, suggesting they have scored less than their chances warranted.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 62%. Lazio’s attack and chance creation should put pressure on Cagliari, whose defensive record is the strongest contributor to the expectation of goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.8 corners in total. Recent matches offer scope for a busy count, including 15 corners in Cagliari’s latest game against Roma and 11 in Lazio’s home win over Parma.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 26 shots in total. Lazio had 21 attempts against Parma, while Cagliari recorded 19 against Roma, pointing to the potential for a steady flow of efforts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lazio wins by X goals. Negative = Cagliari wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lazio vs Cagliari with expected spread of +1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lazio vs Cagliari
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Lazio are projected to finish about 1.2 goals ahead. That margin reflects their advantage in home conditions and the gap in the teams’ defensive records.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s away chance creation could make this closer if they turn more of those opportunities into goals. Their away expected-goal figure is stronger than their scoring return, so improved finishing is the clearest route to upsetting the forecast.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel