Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Genoa Prediction
Milan
Home Team
90%
VS
Genoa
Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5:
52%
Under 2.5:
48%
Goal:
50%
No Goal:
50%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 17 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 38 | 15 | 23 | 39 |
| 2 | Milan | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 38 |
| 3 | Napoli | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 37 |
| 4 | Juventus | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Roma | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 33 |
| 6 | Como | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 30 |
| 7 | Bologna | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 26 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 25 |
| 9 | Lazio | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 24 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
| 11 | Torino | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 23 |
| 12 | Udinese | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 22 |
| 13 | Cremonese | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 21 |
| 14 | Parma | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 18 |
| 15 | Cagliari | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Lecce | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 17 |
| 17 | Genoa | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 | Verona | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 12 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | Pisa | 18 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 |
Recent Trends
Milan
- Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 0)
Genoa
- Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Milan
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.38
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.09
# Clean Sheets:
3
Genoa
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.57
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Milan and Genoa sees Milan as the overwhelming favorite with a 90% probability of victory. The match is also predicted to exceed 2.5 goals, with a 52% likelihood. Milan currently holds the second position in Serie A, while Genoa is struggling near the relegation zone in 17th place.
Match Analysis
Over the last three games, Milan has displayed solid form, claiming victories against Cagliari and Verona, and drawing against Sassuolo. A key takeaway from these performances is Milan's defensive resilience, highlighted by two clean sheets in their recent outings. The team averages 1.8 goals per match over their last five, conceding only 0.8, showcasing a balance between attack and defense. Their expected goals scored and conceded confirm their attacking prowess and defensive organization.
In contrast, Genoa has faced a tough spell, managing only a draw against Pisa while suffering defeats against Roma and Atalanta. Their defense has been porous, with no clean sheets in the last five matches and an average of 2 goals conceded per game. Despite scoring 1.8 goals on average, Genoa's inability to maintain defensive solidity has been a major concern. Their expected goals metrics further reveal vulnerabilities in their backline, which could be exploited by Milan's attack.
Final Prediction
Milan's recent form and defensive solidity give them a clear edge over Genoa. The combination of a potent attack and a robust defense, along with Genoa's defensive frailties, suggests that Milan is well-positioned to secure a win. A key factor to watch is Milan's ability to capitalize on Genoa's defensive errors, which could be decisive in determining the match outcome.