Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Juventus Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Milan

Home Team
32%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
44%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.2
Expected Spread: -0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Milan W L L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)

Juventus W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 1.56
Clean Sheets 1

Juventus

xG (avg) 2.21
xGA (avg) 1.61
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are narrowly favored to take all three points at San Siro, with a 44.0% chance of an away win against Milan’s 32.0% and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model leans toward a tight contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% likelihood, reflecting two disciplined top-four defences: Milan sitting 2nd on 66 points and Juventus 4th on 63.

Match Analysis

Milan come into this clash in uneven form. Their last three outings show a narrow 1-0 win at Verona sandwiched between a 0-3 home collapse to Udinese and a 0-1 defeat away to Napoli. They have struggled in attack recently, averaging just 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded over the last five games, with 1.344 expected goals created and 1.558 expected goals allowed per match and only one clean sheet in that run. The numbers point to a side that is not capitalising fully in the final third while offering more chances than Stefano Pioli would like at the back. Juventus, by contrast, arrive on a surge of results. Three straight wins – 2-0 at home to Bologna, 1-0 away at Atalanta, and 2-0 against Genoa – underline a team that has rediscovered its defensive steel. They are averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, backed by a strong 2.21 xG for and 1.608 xG against, plus four clean sheets in that spell. Even when outshot heavily, as at Atalanta (7 shots to 22), they have found ways to manage games and protect leads, a trait that could be decisive in such a fine-margin encounter.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 52.0% probability, ahead of a 48.0% chance of over 2.5 goals. All three of Milan’s recent matches stayed under the line (1-0, 0-3, 0-1 total goals of 1, 3, and 1), as did all three of Juventus’ wins (2-0, 1-0, 2-0 total goals of 2, 1, and 2). With Milan averaging 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded and Juventus posting similar concessions but superior xG in attack, the over 2.5 prediction doesn’t quite outweigh the strong defensive trends from both sides, so under 2.5 is the preferred call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Milan
Corners in last 5 matches
Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.31 total corners in this match. Milan’s last three games produced 7, 7 and 7 corners respectively (they won 1-6, 4-3 and 3-4), while Juventus’ fixtures saw 7, 15 and 10 (with counts of 6-1, 2-13 and 5-5). With Juve often allowing opponents to push on and Milan tending to create sustained pressure in spells, the predicted corners total around nine fits a tactical battle with measured attacking play rather than end-to-end chaos.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Milan
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 24.22, suggesting a moderate-volume shooting game rather than a barrage. Milan’s last three matches saw 6, 20 and 7 efforts, while allowing 13, 12 and 10 – again underlining their inconsistency in generating chances. Juventus registered 14, 7 and 16 shots, conceding 7, 22 and 12. This shots prediction aligns with Juve’s solid 2.21 xG average: they do not always shoot in huge volume, but they are efficient, and the expected shots figure reflects a balanced contest with neither side dominating relentlessly.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Milan wins by X goals. Negative = Juventus wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Milan vs Juventus with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Milan vs Juventus
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.22 in favour of Juventus, meaning the away side are marginally expected to edge it. Milan’s last three results give them a combined goal difference of -3 (1-0, 0-3, 0-1), while Juventus boast +5 across their three wins (2-0, 1-0, 2-0). This expected spread dovetails with the match winner probabilities and the recent form: Juve’s sharper attack and four clean sheets in five give them a slight but meaningful advantage over a Milan side misfiring in both boxes.

Final Prediction

Juventus’ superior recent form, higher scoring rate, and remarkable defensive record tilt this heavyweight clash in their favour, even away from home. Milan’s attacking output and underlying numbers have dipped at the wrong time, leaving little margin for error. The key factor to watch will be whether Milan can turn their possession into clear chances against a Juve back line that has made a habit of keeping clean sheets in exactly this type of cagey, top-of-the-table battle.

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