Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Lecce Prediction
Milan
Home Team
98%
VS
Lecce
Away Team
1%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5:
54%
Under 2.5:
46%
Goal:
49%
No Goal:
51%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 17 | 26 | 46 |
| 2 | Milan | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 43 |
| 3 | Napoli | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 40 |
| 4 | Juventus | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 39 |
| 5 | Roma | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Como | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 31 |
| 8 | Bologna | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 30 |
| 9 | Lazio | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 28 |
| 10 | Udinese | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 26 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Torino | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 23 |
| 13 | Cremonese | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 22 |
| 14 | Parma | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 22 |
| 15 | Genoa | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 19 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 19 |
| 17 | Lecce | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 17 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 20 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 | Pisa | 20 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 13 |
| 20 | Verona | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 13 |
Recent Trends
Milan
- Last Match: vs Como (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)
Lecce
- Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Como (Goals: 0 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Milan
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.13
# Clean Sheets:
2
Lecce
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.09
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Milan and Lecce sees Milan as the overwhelming favorite with a 98.0% probability of victory. The predicted outcome suggests a home win for Milan, with goals expected to flow over 2.5 in the match. Milan currently sits in the 2nd position in Serie A, while Lecce is struggling near the relegation zone in 17th place.
Match Analysis
In recent matches, Milan has shown a mixed bag of results with a win against Como, followed by two consecutive draws against Fiorentina and Genoa. They have demonstrated resilience, averaging 1.6 goals per game while maintaining a solid defense by conceding just 0.6 goals on average in their last five matches. Advanced metrics highlight Milan's attacking prowess, with an expected goal average of 2.414 per game, indicating their potential to score against weaker defenses like Lecce's.
Lecce, on the other hand, is in a tough spot, having lost their last three encounters against Inter, Parma, and Roma. Their recent performances have been lackluster with an average of only 0.4 goals scored per game and a higher average of 1.2 goals conceded. The absence of clean sheets and lower expected goals of 0.778 further accentuates their struggles in defense and attack, making it a daunting task to overturn their form against a strong Milan side.
Final Prediction
Milan's impressive run of form and their superior defensive and attacking metrics give them a significant advantage going into this match. Lecce's inability to score and defend effectively could be exploited by Milan's aggressive play. A key factor to watch will be Milan's ability to capitalize on Lecce's defensive frailties and extend their unbeaten streak, which could help them maintain pressure on league leaders, Inter.