Serie A 2026-2027: Napoli vs Roma Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Napoli

Home Team
33%
VS

Roma

Away Team
41%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 28.6
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Roma

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Napoli
Chance creation (xG data) +7.0 Roma
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.9 Roma
Defense +2.4 Roma
Results & dominance +0.9 Roma

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Roma. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Napoli attack & chance creation +5.0 Over
Roma attack & chance creation +2.7 Over
Napoli defense +2.6 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 21 9 12 19
2 Lazio 7 6 1 0 14 4 10 19
3 Roma 7 5 2 0 16 3 13 17
4 Milan 7 4 3 0 14 7 7 15
5 Como 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
6 Frosinone 7 4 1 2 13 9 4 13
7 Cagliari 7 4 1 2 6 7 -1 13
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 9 8 1 11
9 Napoli 7 3 1 3 10 7 3 10
10 Torino 7 3 1 3 10 9 1 10
11 Atalanta 7 3 0 4 10 11 -1 9
12 Lecce 7 3 0 4 9 12 -3 9
13 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
14 Monza 7 2 1 4 13 15 -2 7
15 Bologna 7 1 2 4 6 10 -4 5
16 Udinese 7 1 1 5 9 16 -7 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 13 -8 4
18 Fiorentina 7 1 1 5 8 17 -9 4
19 Parma 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Venezia 7 1 0 6 6 16 -10 3

Recent Trends

Napoli L W D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Venezia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Frosinone (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 3)

Roma W D D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 0.69
Clean Sheets 2

Roma

xG (avg) 2.54
xGA (avg) 1.25
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are the likeliest winners at 41%, with Napoli at 33% and a draw at 27%. The lean is toward over 2.5 goals, at 57%.

Match Analysis

Napoli’s home advantage is a meaningful counterweight: they average 2.3 expected goals at home and have conceded just 0.7 goals per home match. Roma’s stronger chance creation and defensive record help explain why they remain favourites, though, with 2.5 expected goals created away from home and three clean sheets in their last five matches. Recent form gives Roma the steadier platform. They beat Genoa 2-0, after drawing 0-0 away to Como and 2-2 with Inter. Napoli’s latest result was a 0-1 loss to Venezia, following a 3-0 win over Frosinone and a 1-1 draw with Fiorentina. Napoli’s 29 shots against Venezia show they can create chances, even when the result goes against them.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%. Chance creation from both attacks and the league’s scoring environment support goals, while Napoli’s defensive numbers at home offer a counterargument.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches
Roma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.5 corners. Napoli won 12 corners against Venezia in their latest match, a high count that supports the projection.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 29 shots. Napoli had 29 attempts against Venezia, while Roma recorded 18 against Inter, pointing to the potential for a busy game.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Napoli wins by X goals. Negative = Roma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Napoli vs Roma with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Napoli vs Roma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is close to level, at about 0.2 goals in Roma’s favour. That narrow gap reflects Roma’s slight advantage despite Napoli’s home edge.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s ability to turn home chances into goals could flip the forecast. Their home chance creation is strong, and Roma’s away expected goals conceded average is 1.3, leaving room for Napoli to trouble the visitors.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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