Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Verona Prediction

Napoli

Home Team
91%
VS

Verona

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 17 13 0 4 38 15 23 39
2 Milan 17 11 5 1 28 13 15 38
3 Napoli 17 12 1 4 26 13 13 37
4 Juventus 18 9 6 3 24 16 8 33
5 Roma 18 11 0 7 20 12 8 33
6 Como 17 8 6 3 23 12 11 30
7 Bologna 17 7 5 5 25 17 8 26
8 Atalanta 18 6 7 5 21 19 2 25
9 Lazio 18 6 6 6 18 14 4 24
10 Sassuolo 18 6 5 7 23 22 1 23
11 Torino 18 6 5 7 20 28 -8 23
12 Udinese 18 6 4 8 18 29 -11 22
13 Cremonese 18 5 6 7 18 21 -3 21
14 Parma 17 4 6 7 12 19 -7 18
15 Cagliari 18 4 6 8 19 25 -6 18
16 Lecce 17 4 5 8 12 23 -11 17
17 Genoa 18 3 6 9 18 28 -10 15
18 Verona 17 2 6 9 13 28 -15 12
19 Fiorentina 18 2 6 10 18 28 -10 12
20 Pisa 18 1 9 8 13 25 -12 12

Recent Trends

Napoli ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)

Verona ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 3

Verona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.85
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli is heavily favored to win against Verona with a whopping 91.0% probability, reflecting their strong position as the third-placed team in Serie A. The game is expected to be a low-scoring affair with a 45.0% probability of under 2.5 goals. Meanwhile, Verona, languishing in 18th place, faces a daunting challenge with only a 4.0% chance of clinching a victory.

Match Analysis

Napoli comes into this match on the back of a solid performance, winning two of their last three games. They secured decisive 2-0 victories against both Lazio and Cremonese away from home, showcasing their formidable defense with three clean sheets in their last five matches. However, they did suffer a narrow defeat to Udinese, indicating some vulnerability. Their recent form, with an average of 2.0 goals scored per game, highlights their attacking prowess. On the other hand, Verona has been struggling, losing two of their last three matches, including a heavy 3-0 home defeat to Torino and a similar loss away at Milan. Their solitary victory came against Fiorentina, with a narrow 2-1 scoreline. Their poor defensive record, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last five matches, has been a significant concern. Despite this, they have managed to create scoring opportunities, with an average of 1.374 expected goals per game.

Final Prediction

Napoli's edge in this encounter stems from their strong defensive record and consistent goal-scoring ability, making them formidable opponents. The home advantage further bolsters their chances of securing a win. A key factor to watch during the game will be Napoli's ability to maintain their defensive solidity against a Verona side that has struggled to convert chances into goals.