Serie A 2026-2027: Parma vs Torino Prediction - 19 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Parma

Home Team
36%
VS

Torino

Away Team
37%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 25.5
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Torino

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Parma
Attack +5.5 Torino
Chance creation (xG data) +4.7 Torino
Results & dominance +2.2 Torino

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Torino. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Parma attack & chance creation +7.0 Under
Torino attack & chance creation +3.4 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Torino defense +1.6 Over
Form & results +1.3 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Parma L W L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Monza (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)

Torino W D L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

xG (avg) 0.84
xGA (avg) 1.41
Clean Sheets 0

Torino

xG (avg) 1.08
xGA (avg) 1.20
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Torino are marginally the likeliest winners at 37%, just ahead of Parma at 36%, with a draw at 28%. The goals outlook leans under 2.5, with a 57% probability.

Match Analysis

The probabilities are close because Parma’s home advantage counters Torino’s stronger attack and chance creation. Parma have scored an average of 1.0 goal at home and conceded 1.0, but their home expected goals figures point to a tougher balance: 0.8 created and 1.4 conceded. Torino’s attacking threat is also reflected in their recent away results. Parma’s latest outing was a 0-3 defeat to Inter, after a 2-1 home win over Genoa. Torino arrive off a 2-1 win over Udinese, following a 1-1 draw away at Bologna. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in its last five matches, leaving room for the other team to make its attacking opportunities count.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 is favoured at 57%. The strongest pull is Parma’s limited attack and chance creation, with Torino’s attacking figures also leaning toward a lower total. The league scoring environment and Torino’s defensive record offer some counterweight, so the under is a lean rather than a strong call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Parma
Corners in last 5 matches
Torino
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.1 corners. Recent matches show that both teams can concede corners, including Parma allowing 11 against Como and Torino allowing eight against Roma, though those figures do not guarantee a similar total here.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 26 shots. Recent shot counts have varied, but Torino recorded 12 in their latest match and Parma managed nine against Inter.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Parma wins by X goals. Negative = Torino wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Parma vs Torino with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Parma vs Torino
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.3 of a goal in Torino’s favour. The narrow difference between the teams’ win probabilities supports a close contest rather than a clear away advantage.

Final Prediction

Parma’s home advantage is the clearest route to overturning the slight Torino lean. Their 2-1 win over Genoa at home offers a recent example of that potential, while Torino have not kept a clean sheet in five matches.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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