Serie A 2025-2026: Pisa vs Lecce Prediction - 1 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Pisa

Home Team
45%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
29%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 22.7
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Pisa L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 5)

Lecce D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pisa

xG (avg) 1.19
xGA (avg) 1.69
Clean Sheets 0

Lecce

xG (avg) 0.84
xGA (avg) 1.61
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Pisa are marginally favoured at home, with a 45.0% chance of victory against Lecce’s 29.0% and a 26.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win despite Pisa sitting rock-bottom in 20th on 18 points, while Lecce are 17th on 29 points and desperately trying to stay above the relegation line. In terms of goals, the outlook is tight and cautious: the under 2.5 prediction is supported by a 57.0% implied chance of a low‑scoring contest.

Match Analysis

Pisa come into this one on a three-game losing run, but their performances have not been completely lifeless. They fell 0-1 away at Parma, then lost 1-2 at home to Genoa and 0-3 at Roma, creating a decent volume of shots in each match (12, 12 and 9 respectively) but lacking cutting edge. Their defensive issues remain obvious – 61 goals conceded this season and no clean sheets in their last five – yet their recent xG of 1.188 per game suggests they are still able to create enough to trouble opponents, especially at home. Lecce, by contrast, look more solid but blunt. They have drawn two of their last three – 0-0 at Verona and 1-1 at home to Fiorentina – before a 0-2 defeat away to Bologna. Across those games they have limited opponents reasonably well but only scored once, in line with a poor average of 0.4 goals scored over the last five matches. Their attacking xG of 0.842 per match and 1.608 xG conceded underline a side that struggles to convert chances and doesn’t completely shut the door at the back, keeping just one clean sheet in that same period. Against a desperate Pisa, that lack of punch could be decisive.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 outcome with a 57.0% probability, and the recent numbers back that under 2.5 prediction. Two of Pisa’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-1 vs Parma, 0-3 vs Roma, with only the 1-2 vs Genoa going over), while all three of Lecce’s latest fixtures were under (0-0, 1-1, 0-2). With Pisa averaging 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Lecce at 0.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus modest xG figures on both sides, this points to a tight, low‑scoring encounter.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches
Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for the corners prediction is 8.99, suggesting a match with a moderate but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Pisa’s last three outings produced 11, 10 and 4 corners, while Lecce’s delivered 6, 7 and 14, hinting at variability but no consistent corner-heavy pattern. With both teams generally cautious and not relentlessly flooding the box, the predicted corners figure around nine looks in line with their balanced, often reactive styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s shots prediction is for 22.68 expected shots in total, a mid-range figure for Serie A. Pisa have attempted 12, 12 and 9 shots in their last three, while facing 15, 13 and 8; Lecce have taken 12, 14 and 6, conceding 6, 5 and 12. These numbers, alongside the modest xG for both sides, suggest a game where chances appear but in controlled doses rather than a shooting festival, matching the expected shots projection.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Pisa wins by X goals. Negative = Lecce wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Pisa vs Lecce with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Pisa vs Lecce
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction gives an expected spread of +0.16 in favour of Pisa, indicating only a slight home edge. Recently, Pisa’s goal differences have been -1, -1 and -3, while Lecce’s have been 0, 0 and -2 – neither side is blowing opponents away, but Pisa at least have been consistently within a goal in two of the last three. This narrow expected spread aligns with the 45.0% home win probability and the view that Pisa’s slightly better recent attacking output could tilt a tight match.

Final Prediction

Pisa’s marginally stronger attacking metrics and home advantage give them a slender edge over a Lecce side that struggles to score and relies on keeping things tight. The key factor to watch will be whether Lecce can turn their possession and territory into genuine chances; if they don’t, Pisa’s need for points and their slightly higher xG should eventually tell in a nervy, low‑scoring battle.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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