Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction - 4 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Roma

Home Team
60%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.1
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Roma W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)

Fiorentina D D W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

xG (avg) 1.83
xGA (avg) 0.93
Clean Sheets 3

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 0.92
xGA (avg) 1.42
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are favoured to take all three points, with a 60.0% chance of a home win against a Fiorentina side given just a 20.0% chance, and another 20.0% on the draw. The model leans towards a tight affair with an under 2.5 goals prediction (45.0% probability on over 2.5, so a slight edge to the low‑scoring scenario). Roma come into this clash from 6th in Serie A on 61 points, while Fiorentina sit 15th on 37 points, still glancing over their shoulders at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Roma’s recent form is solid and controlled rather than spectacular: a 2-0 win away at Bologna, a 1-1 home draw with Atalanta, and a 3-0 home victory over Pisa. That’s seven points from nine, with only one goal conceded and two clean sheets in the last three. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers (1.832 xG for and 0.934 xG against per game), which paints the picture of a side creating enough and defending reliably. Fiorentina arrive with a quieter but steady run: a goalless home draw with Sassuolo, a 1-1 draw away to Lecce, and a 1-0 home win over Lazio. Three games unbeaten, three clean sheets in their last five, but the attack hasn’t fully clicked — only two goals in their last three outings. Their averages over the last five (1.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded) look decent, but the xG tells a slightly different story: just 0.92 expected goals for per game and 1.424 against, suggesting they’ve been overperforming at both ends and may find it harder to sustain that away to one of the league’s stronger sides.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an under 2.5 prediction, with the probability of over 2.5 goals only at 45.0%. Two of Roma’s last three league matches finished under 2.5 goals (2-0, 1-1, 3-0), while Fiorentina have seen all of their last three end under the line (0-0, 1-1, 1-0). Roma’s balance of 2.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus Fiorentina’s modest 0.92 xG per game, all point towards a cautious, controlled contest rather than a shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Roma
Corners in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.34, roughly in line with what both sides have been producing. Roma’s last three have seen 14, 13 and 4 corners respectively, while Fiorentina’s matches produced 11, 7 and 11 — plenty of set-piece situations at both ends. With Roma likely to push at home and Fiorentina capable of spells of pressure, predicted corners around the 9–10 mark fits their recent attacking patterns from wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 24.08, pointing to a moderately busy game in and around both boxes. Roma’s last three have featured 17, 27 and 17 total shots, while Fiorentina’s have seen 33, 19 and 21, suggesting both sides allow and take a fair number of efforts. That shots prediction ties neatly into Roma’s strong attacking xG and Fiorentina’s higher xG against, hinting at Roma carving out the better chances even if overall volumes are shared.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Roma wins by X goals. Negative = Fiorentina wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Roma vs Fiorentina with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Roma vs Fiorentina
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.64 in favour of Roma, indicating the hosts are projected to win by roughly a single goal. Recent results back that up: Roma are +5 on goal difference over their last three (6 scored, 1 conceded), while Fiorentina are only +1 (2 scored, 1 conceded). Combined with a 60.0% home‑win probability and Roma’s better xG profile at both ends, the expected spread feels aligned with their current superiority.

Final Prediction

Roma’s sharper attack, stronger defensive record and more convincing underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a Fiorentina side that has been grinding out results but creating relatively little. If Roma control territory as they have recently, their quality in both boxes should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Fiorentina’s defence, which has delivered three clean sheets in five, can withstand sustained Roman pressure over 90 minutes.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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