Serie A 2026-2027: Roma vs Genoa Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Roma

Home Team
79%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
8%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 28.5
Expected Spread: +1.3

Why the Model Leans Roma

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Roma
Chance creation (xG data) +11.0 Roma
Attack +6.7 Roma
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.3 Roma
Defense +3.1 Roma

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 91% for Roma. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Roma attack & chance creation +10.3 Over
Roma defense +3.3 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +2.2 Over
Genoa defense +1.1 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Roma D D W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 4 - 0)

Genoa W L D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Frosinone (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

xG (avg) 3.21
xGA (avg) 1.22
Clean Sheets 3

Genoa

xG (avg) 0.80
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are favoured to win at 79%, with a draw at 13% and a Genoa victory at 8%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 61%.

Match Analysis

Roma’s unbeaten start and home advantage are central to the forecast. They have scored 14 and conceded only three in six league matches, while their recent home performances show they can create plenty: their average expected goals at home is 3.2. Their home attack is the clearest route to separating the sides, especially against a Genoa defence that has conceded 11 goals in six matches. Roma were held 0-0 away at Como after drawing 2-2 with Inter, but have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches. Genoa’s latest result was a 2-1 home win over Fiorentina, following a 1-2 loss at Parma. Their away numbers are a concern, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Roma’s home goals average of 2.7 is below their 3.2 expected goals, suggesting their chance creation has outpaced their finishing.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 is favoured at 61%. Roma’s attacking output and chance creation are the strongest reasons for that lean, with Genoa’s defensive record also pointing toward the possibility of multiple goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Roma
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.0 corners. Recent matches include a 17-corner game for Genoa against Frosinone and nine corners in Roma’s win at Torino, supporting a projection around that mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 28 shots. Roma’s recent match at Como produced 28 shots between the teams, while their game with Inter had 34, showing the potential for a busy contest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Roma wins by X goals. Negative = Genoa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Roma vs Genoa with expected spread of +1.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Roma vs Genoa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 1.3 goals in Roma’s favour. That fits their strong scoring and defensive record against Genoa’s difficulty scoring away from home.

Final Prediction

Roma’s main risk is failing to turn their chances into goals, as their home scoring has lagged behind their expected goals. Genoa’s win over Fiorentina shows they can score, so a wasteful Roma performance could keep the visitors in it.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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