Serie A 2025-2026: Sassuolo vs Milan Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sassuolo

Home Team
21%
VS

Milan

Away Team
59%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: -0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Sassuolo D W L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)

Milan D W L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.13
xGA (avg) 1.52
Clean Sheets 1

Milan

xG (avg) 1.77
xGA (avg) 0.83
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are clear favourites here, with a 59.0% chance of taking all three points away at 10th‑placed Sassuolo, who themselves have just a 21.0% win probability. The model leans towards a tight game, backing under 2.5 goals (48.0% probability) despite Milan’s status as a top‑four side sitting 3rd in Serie A on 67 points.

Match Analysis

Sassuolo come into this on a mixed run: a solid 0-0 draw away at Fiorentina, a 2-1 home win over high-flying Como, and a narrow 2-1 defeat at Genoa. They’ve looked competitive in all three, creating a fair number of chances (11, 11 and 15 shots respectively) but also showing some vulnerability at the back. Across their last five matches they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, but the underlying numbers tell a different story: 1.132 expected goals for and a much heavier 1.518 expected goals against suggest they’ve been slightly over-performing in both boxes. Milan’s last three tell their own story: a 3-0 home defeat to Udinese, followed by a hard‑fought 1-0 win away to struggling Verona and a goalless stalemate at home to Juventus. Even when not free‑scoring – just one goal in those three – Milan have still been creating: over the last five they average 1.768 xG per game, while conceding only 0.828 xG and keeping two clean sheets. That defensive solidity, combined with Sassuolo’s tendency to allow quality chances, underpins Milan’s strong favouritism and the expected away edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction leans towards under 2.5 goals, with a 48.0% probability and a generally low‑scoring pattern in recent Milan matches. Two of Sassuolo’s last three (2-1 vs Como, 2-1 at Genoa) went over 2.5, with only the 0-0 at Fiorentina finishing under. Milan, by contrast, have seen all three of their latest games land under 2.5 (0-3, 1-0, 0-0), and with Milan scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.6 on average over their last five, plus relatively modest xG figures for Sassuolo, a cagey, under 2.5 outcome looks plausible.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches
Milan
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.22 total corners, which fits the recent evidence. Sassuolo’s last three produced 11, 13 and 8 corners, while Milan’s delivered 7, 7 and 7, suggesting both sides can generate a steady but not explosive stream of set‑pieces. With Milan likely to control territory and Sassuolo looking to break and cross, the predicted corners tally around nine feels consistent with their current playing patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Milan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.78, and recent form backs that shots prediction. Sassuolo’s last three matches saw them take 11, 11 and 15 shots, while allowing 22, 12 and 14; Milan registered 8, 6 and 20 shots in their most recent fixtures, while limiting opponents to 10, 13 and 12. Given Milan’s strong attacking xG (1.768 per game) against a Sassuolo side that concedes high-quality chances, a combined shots count in the mid‑20s looks well aligned with the expected shots figure.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sassuolo wins by X goals. Negative = Milan wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sassuolo vs Milan with expected spread of -0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sassuolo vs Milan
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -0.81 (home – away), meaning Milan are expected to win by roughly one goal. Sassuolo’s goal difference over their last three is perfectly balanced (3 scored, 3 conceded), but Milan’s is negative in that same stretch (1 for, 3 against) despite better underlying numbers and clean sheets in two of five recent outings. That expected spread matches the win probabilities: Milan’s superior defensive metrics and xG edge suggest they should have just enough to pull away over 90 minutes.

Final Prediction

Milan’s combination of defensive stability and higher attacking xG gives them a clear statistical edge over a Sassuolo side that has been living slightly above its underlying numbers. If Milan turn their chance creation into something closer to their xG output, their quality should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Sassuolo can exploit the spaces Milan leave when pushing forward, or if Milan’s back line continues to suffocate opposition chances as the numbers suggest.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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