Serie A 2026-2027: Udinese vs Lecce Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Udinese

Home Team
47%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
26%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.4
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Udinese

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Udinese
Chance creation (xG data) +3.4 Udinese
Attack +2.6 Lecce
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.1 Udinese

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Udinese. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lecce defense +2.8 Over
Udinese defense +2.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Udinese attack & chance creation +1.4 Over
Lecce attack & chance creation +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Udinese L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 2)

Lecce L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.59
xGA (avg) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Lecce

xG (avg) 1.04
xGA (avg) 2.53
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Udinese are the most likely winners at 47%, with a draw at 27% and a Lecce win at 26%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 59% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Udinese also rated more strongly for chance creation. At home, Udinese have averaged 1.6 expected goals but scored only 0.7 goals, a gap that points to missed opportunities. They have also conceded 1.3 goals per home match, so Lecce should have chances of their own. Udinese come in after three straight defeats, most recently losing 1-2 to Torino, following a 0-1 loss to Cagliari and a 3-5 defeat to Inter. Lecce have lost their last two, 0-3 at Milan and then 1-2 to Bologna, after beating Monza 3-2. Lecce’s attack is a counterweight to Udinese’s advantages, while neither side has kept a clean sheet in its last five matches.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The forecast favours over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both defences support that lean: Udinese have conceded 13 goals in six league matches, and Lecce’s away defence has allowed 2.5 expected goals against per match.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.4 corners. Both teams have recently had matches with lively corner counts, including Udinese’s 16-1 advantage over Cagliari and Lecce’s 10-3 count against Bologna.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 26 shots. Their latest matches produced 27 shots in Torino against Udinese and 28 in Lecce’s meeting with Bologna.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Udinese wins by X goals. Negative = Lecce wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Udinese vs Lecce with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Udinese vs Lecce
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about a third of a goal in Udinese’s favour. That reflects a narrow home lean, rather than a clear gap between the teams.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s home chance creation has not yet translated into goals, and that could keep Lecce in the contest. If Udinese again fail to convert their opportunities, Lecce’s attacking threat could turn the forecast.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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