Serie A 2025-2026: Udinese vs Torino Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Udinese

Home Team
44%
VS

Torino

Away Team
33%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Udinese D L W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)

Torino D D W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.13
xGA (avg) 1.44
Clean Sheets 3

Torino

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Udinese are narrowly favoured at home, with a 44.0% chance of victory against Torino’s 33.0%, while the draw sits at 24.0%. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, with just a 48.0% likelihood of the game going over 2.5. In the table, Udinese are 11th on 44 points, three points and two places ahead of 13th-placed Torino on 41.

Match Analysis

Udinese come into this on a mixed but encouraging run: a superb 3-0 away win at Milan, a narrow 0-1 home loss to Parma, and a chaotic 3-3 draw at Lazio. That sequence shows both their ceiling and volatility – capable of hurting big sides away, but still fragile at home. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged only 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, yet with 1.134 xG for and 1.444 xG against, they’re often creating enough but not finishing consistently. Three clean sheets in that period underline a growing defensive solidity when they get their game plan right. Torino’s recent form is equally patchy: a good 2-2 home draw with leaders Inter, a frustrating 0-0 at relegation-threatened Cremonese, and a 2-1 home win over Verona. They, too, average 0.8 goals scored over the last five games, but concede more at 1.6, despite xG against of 1.404 – hinting at some defensive lapses or poor moments in both boxes. With only two clean sheets in five, Torino’s back line has been less reliable than Udinese’s, and that small edge at the back is reflected in the probabilities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards under 2.5, with the over 2.5 prediction given just a 48.0% chance. Two of Udinese’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Milan, 3-3 vs Lazio) and one under (0-1 vs Parma), while Torino have seen two under 2.5 (0-0 at Cremonese, 2-1 vs Verona just creeping over) and one over (2-2 vs Inter). The modest average of 0.8 goals scored for both sides, combined with xG figures around 1.1 for and 1.4 against, supports a tight, low-scoring under 2.5 scenario despite those recent high-scoring outliers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Torino
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 9.85, a mid-range corners prediction suggesting a balanced game rather than end-to-end chaos. Udinese’s last three have produced 9, 15 and 7 corners, while Torino’s have seen 10, 7 and 9 – all hovering around or above that 9–10 mark. Both sides can build pressure in spells, but they are not relentless wide, high-pressing teams, so the predicted corners figure fits a match of controlled attacks rather than constant bombardment.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 25.35, an aggressive but realistic shots prediction for two teams who have recently allowed opponents plenty of efforts. Udinese’s last three games featured 29, 26 and 32 total shots, while Torino’s produced 28, 18 and 29, indicating that matches involving these sides usually generate opportunities at both ends. Those volumes marry up with their xG numbers: neither are clinical, but they shoot often enough for the expected shots figure to sit in the mid‑20s.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Udinese wins by X goals. Negative = Torino wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Udinese vs Torino with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Udinese vs Torino
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Udinese at +0.36, meaning the home side are expected to edge the contest by roughly a third of a goal. Recently, Udinese have a combined goal difference of +2 across their last three (3-0, 0-1, 3-3), while Torino sit at +1 (2-2, 0-0, 2-1). The expected spread reflects Udinese’s slightly better defensive record in the last five matches and their home advantage, in line with the 44.0% win probability.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s marginally stronger defensive numbers, combined with home advantage and a slightly better recent goal difference, give them the edge in what looks like a very finely balanced mid-table contest. If they can translate their xG into goals and avoid the lapses seen against Parma, they should justify their favourite tag. A key factor to watch will be how well Torino’s defence copes with Udinese’s periods of pressure, especially from open play where both sides tend to concede chances.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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