Serie A 2024-2025: Verona vs Lecce Prediction

Verona

Home Team
47%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
25%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 37%
Under 2.5: 63%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 35 23 8 4 55 25 30 77
2 Inter 35 22 8 5 73 33 40 74
3 Atalanta 35 20 8 7 71 31 40 68
4 Juventus 35 16 15 4 52 32 20 63
5 Roma 35 18 9 8 50 32 18 63
6 Lazio 35 18 9 8 58 45 13 63
7 Bologna 35 16 14 5 53 38 15 62
8 Fiorentina 35 17 8 10 53 35 18 59
9 Milan 35 16 9 10 55 39 16 57
10 Como 35 12 9 14 45 48 -3 45
11 Torino 35 10 14 11 39 40 -1 44
12 Udinese 35 12 8 15 38 49 -11 44
13 Genoa 35 9 12 14 30 43 -13 39
14 Cagliari 35 8 9 18 36 51 -15 33
15 Verona 35 9 5 21 30 63 -33 32
16 Parma 35 6 14 15 40 54 -14 32
17 Lecce 35 6 9 20 24 57 -33 27
18 Venezia 35 4 14 17 28 49 -21 26
19 Empoli 35 4 13 18 27 55 -28 25
20 Monza 35 2 9 24 25 63 -38 15

Recent Trends

Verona ❌ ❌ ❌ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)

Lecce ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Como (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Venezia (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Verona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.00
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.44
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Serie A clash between Verona and Lecce is predicted to end in favor of Verona, with a 47.0% probability of a home win. Meanwhile, Lecce has a 25.0% chance of securing an away victory, and there's a 27.0% likelihood of a draw. Given the current standings, Verona is sitting in 15th place with 32 points, while Lecce is in 17th place with 27 points, both battling to avoid relegation. The match is expected to feature under 2.5 goals, with a 37.0% probability of exceeding that threshold.

Match Analysis

Verona has been struggling recently, suffering three consecutive losses against Inter, Cagliari, and Roma. They failed to score in all these matches, conceding a total of four goals. Despite the disappointing results, Verona's defense has shown some resilience, with an average of 0.8 goals conceded per game over the last five matches, and achieving one clean sheet in that period. On the other hand, Lecce has been inconsistent, managing a draw against a strong Atalanta side but losing to Napoli and Como. Their attacking output has been slightly better than Verona's, with an average of 0.6 goals scored per game in the last five matches. However, their defense has been more porous, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game. The advanced metrics suggest that Lecce has been underperforming slightly in terms of expected goals, while Verona's expected goals figures are also below their actual output.

Final Prediction

Verona's higher probability of winning is largely due to their marginally better defensive performance and home advantage. The key factor to watch in this game will be whether Verona can capitalize on their chances and secure a much-needed win to boost their fight against relegation. Both teams will need to improve their attacking efficiency to alter the expected low-scoring nature of the match.