NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
81.6%
123.1 pts
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
18.4%
105.6 pts

Key Prediction Insights

The Oklahoma City Thunder are predicted to take the win against the Dallas Mavericks with an 81.6% probability. The game is expected to end with a score of 123.1 to 105.6 in favor of the Thunder. The Thunder's starting lineup is projected to include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. For the Mavericks, the expected starters are Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, and P.J. Washington.

Game Analysis

Both teams come into this matchup riding the momentum of recent victories. The Thunder have been on a roll, securing wins against the Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers, and Phoenix Suns with scores indicating a strong offensive output, consistently scoring over 120 points. This offensive prowess is spearheaded by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who boasts a remarkable average of 32.77 points per game and an impressive offensive rating of 140.7. Additionally, Chet Holmgren's defensive rating of 102.2 signals a robust defensive presence that the Thunder can rely on. On the other hand, the Mavericks have shown their resilience with victories over the Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Clippers. Anthony Davis is a key player for Dallas, displaying a solid offensive rating of 115.0 and averaging 20.625 points per game. While the Mavericks' starting lineup has demonstrated a balanced offensive effort, their defensive ratings, particularly Ryan Nembhard's 119.6, suggest potential vulnerabilities against a high-powered Thunder offense.

Final Prediction

The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to win due to their superior offensive and defensive metrics, coupled with their recent successful performances. A key factor to watch will be how the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander navigates the Mavericks' defense and if Anthony Davis can counterbalance with a standout performance of his own.