NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Denver Nuggets
Home Team
57.3%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
42.7%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jamal Murray
OR
124.8
DR
119.7
PTS
25.7
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.4
DR
116.6
PTS
26.5
SG
Christian Braun
OR
119.9
DR
117.5
PTS
10.9
VS
Josh Hart
OR
119.0
DR
109.8
PTS
11.8
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
123.6
DR
113.6
PTS
17.7
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
127.7
DR
113.0
PTS
15.6
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
117.9
DR
118.6
PTS
11.2
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
112.9
DR
111.8
PTS
16.1
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
137.2
DR
112.6
PTS
28.6
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
120.4
DR
109.3
PTS
19.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The prediction favors the Denver Nuggets to win with a 57.3% probability.
Expected starting five — Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.
Expected starting five — New York: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected total is 231.21 points, pointing to a high-scoring affair and a fairly fast pace with both offenses expected to produce. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -0.13, essentially a pick’em with a hair of advantage to the away team. Note: the 57.3% winner prediction comes from a probability model, while the spread (-0.13) comes from a separate points-based model — both are shown for transparency and can point in different directions.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
231.2
Most likely outcome: 231 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - New York Knicks)
-0.1
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Denver’s power rating has dipped slightly over five games (net -3.0) while New York’s has climbed (+24.1), so Denver is flat-to-down and the Knicks are trending up.
Denver Nuggets
1555.6
-3.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1555.6 | +9.7 |
| 2026-03-02 | Utah Jazz | 1545.9 | +4.9 |
| 2026-03-01 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1541.0 | -10.3 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1551.3 | -7.3 |
| 2026-02-25 | Boston Celtics | 1558.6 | — |
New York Knicks
1606.0
+24.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1606.0 | -9.5 |
| 2026-03-03 | Toronto Raptors | 1615.5 | +9.8 |
| 2026-03-01 | San Antonio Spurs | 1605.7 | +14.1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1591.6 | +9.7 |
| 2026-02-24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1581.9 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Denver Nuggets
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 120 | 113 | +7 | |
| Utah Jazz | 128 | 125 | +3 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 108 | 117 | -9 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 121 | 127 | -6 | |
| Boston Celtics | 103 | 84 | +19 |
New York Knicks
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 100 | 103 | -3 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 111 | 95 | +16 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 114 | 89 | +25 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 127 | 98 | +29 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 94 | 109 | -15 |
Game Analysis
Denver is 2-1 in its last three with wins over the Lakers (120-113) and Jazz (128-125) and a loss to Minnesota (108-117). Those scores show Denver can put up points but has allowed high totals. New York is also 2-1, beating Toronto 111-95 and San Antonio 114-89 and narrowly losing to Oklahoma City 100-103; the Knicks’ wins featured strong defensive holds.
Looking at the expected fives, Denver’s starters average an offensive rating of 124.68 and a defensive rating of 116.40, with average points made 18.82. New York’s starters average an offensive rating of 120.28 and a defensive rating of 112.10, with average points made 17.94. In short, Denver brings a higher-scoring starting unit led by Nikola Jokić (OFF 137.2), while New York’s group shows the better overall defensive numbers.
Final Prediction
Denver gets the nod because its offensive firepower (Jokić and Murray) outweighs the small spread edge and the models favor them outright. Key factor to watch: how effectively the Knicks can slow Jokić and prevent those 130+ offensive outings.
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