NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New Orleans Pelicans

Home Team
25.0%
VS

Orlando Magic

Away Team
75.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 17.3 REB 4.1 AST 4.6 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.3 REB 3.5 AST 3.1 3PM 1.9
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PTS 18.8 REB 5.0 AST 2.9 3PM 2.3
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PTS 21.2 REB 6.2 AST 3.9 3PM 0.1
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PTS 8.5 REB 7.0 AST 1.3 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Orlando Magic
PTS 15.7 REB 5.0 AST 7.0 3PM 2.3
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PTS 20.3 REB 4.4 AST 4.8 3PM 2.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.6 REB 5.2 AST 3.8 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 22.6 REB 8.6 AST 5.5 3PM 1.4
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PTS 14.2 REB 8.3 AST 2.2 3PM 1.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jeremiah Fears
OR
101.1
DR
119.3
PTS
13.3
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
107.3
DR
109.4
PTS
13.8
SG
Herbert Jones
OR
102.4
DR
117.6
PTS
8.9
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
120.0
DR
117.4
PTS
20.4
SF
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.1
DR
121.1
PTS
17.5
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
121.2
DR
114.2
PTS
20.9
PF
Zion Williamson
OR
126.0
DR
118.9
PTS
21.1
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
110.8
DR
115.6
PTS
22.2
C
Yves Missi
OR
120.2
DR
117.8
PTS
5.5
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.7
DR
113.9
PTS
12.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Orlando Magic are picked to win (75.0% probability). Expected starting fives — New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Zion Williamson, Yves Missi. Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 234.26 points, pointing to a high-scoring game and an up-tempo pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) of -4.32 means the away team is favored by about 4.3 points, giving the Magic the edge if they are the visiting side.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.3 Most likely outcome: 234 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Orlando Magic) -4.3 Most likely outcome: -5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New Orleans’ power rating has fallen sharply over five games (-36.2), while Orlando’s has dipped only slightly (-7.8), indicating much more negative momentum for the Pelicans.

New Orleans Pelicans

1407.8 -36.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Sacramento Kings 1407.8 -11.6
2026-04-02 Portland Trail Blazers 1419.4 -7.7
2026-03-29 Houston Rockets 1427.1 -9.3
2026-03-27 Toronto Raptors 1436.4 -7.6
2026-03-26 Detroit Pistons 1444.0 —

Orlando Magic

1506.3 -7.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 Dallas Mavericks 1506.3 +6.6
2026-04-01 Atlanta Hawks 1499.7 -10.5
2026-03-31 Phoenix Suns 1510.2 +10.1
2026-03-29 Toronto Raptors 1500.1 -14.0
2026-03-26 Sacramento Kings 1514.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New Orleans Pelicans

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 113 117 -4
Portland Trail Blazers 106 118 -12
Houston Rockets 102 134 -32
Toronto Raptors 106 119 -13
Detroit Pistons 108 129 -21

Orlando Magic

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 138 127 +11
Atlanta Hawks 101 130 -29
Phoenix Suns 115 111 +4
Toronto Raptors 87 139 -52
Sacramento Kings 121 117 +4

Game Analysis

New Orleans arrives on a three-game losing streak (113-117 vs Kings, 106-118 vs Trail Blazers, 102-134 vs Rockets) with trouble stopping opponents — they conceded 117, 118 and 134 points in those outings. Orlando is 2-1 in its last three (wins 138-127 vs Mavericks, 115-111 vs Suns; loss 101-130 vs Hawks), showing they can both light up the scoreboard and be vulnerable defensively. Looking at the expected starting units, New Orleans’ five average offensive rating is 114.16, defensive rating 118.94, and average points made 13.26. Orlando’s starters average offensive rating 116.40, defensive rating 114.10, and average points made 17.86. That profile — slightly better offense, noticeably better team defense rating, and more scoring from the Magic’s starters — helps explain the projected gap. Individual leaders like Zion Williamson (offensive rating 126.0, 21.1 points) and Paolo Banchero (22.2 points) will be focal points on each side.

Final Prediction

Orlando’s more balanced scoring and cleaner defensive profile among the starters give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether New Orleans can stop the bleeding defensively — if they can’t, the Magic’s scoring depth should carry them.

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