NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
64.0%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
36.0%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME San Antonio Spurs
De'Aaron Fox
PTS
17.1
REB
4.1
AST
5.8
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Stephon Castle
PTS
18.3
REB
5.3
AST
6.5
3PM
1.0
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Devin Vassell
PTS
13.2
REB
4.4
AST
2.8
3PM
2.3
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Julian Champagnie
PTS
12.2
REB
5.7
AST
1.8
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
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Victor Wembanyama
PTS
25.8
REB
10.5
AST
3.3
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
24.7
REB
3.6
AST
5.4
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Josh Hart
PTS
11.1
REB
7.2
AST
4.4
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Mikal Bridges
PTS
12.9
REB
4.0
AST
2.3
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
14.8
REB
5.2
AST
1.6
3PM
1.9
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
17.0
REB
10.7
AST
2.8
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
116.8
DR
112.0
PTS
18.0
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.7
DR
115.5
PTS
26.2
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.5
DR
111.1
PTS
17.2
VS
Josh Hart
OR
118.2
DR
109.0
PTS
11.8
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
116.8
DR
112.4
PTS
13.7
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.9
DR
112.9
PTS
14.4
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.7
DR
110.6
PTS
11.2
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
122.5
DR
110.9
PTS
17.1
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.4
DR
99.4
PTS
24.6
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
125.2
DR
108.1
PTS
19.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are projected to win this game with a 64.0% probability. Expected starting fives — San Antonio: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama; New York: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 216.14 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game and a decent offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread is Home - Away = 7.58, meaning the home team would be favored by roughly 7.6 points, though the Spurs still carry the pregame edge in the prediction.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
216.1
Most likely outcome: 216 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - New York Knicks)
7.6
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
San Antonio’s power rating has been relatively stable (+2.7 over five games) while New York’s has climbed noticeably (+39.9 over five games).
San Antonio Spurs
1732.9
+2.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | New York Knicks | 1732.9 | -12.1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1745.0 | +11.4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1733.6 | +13.2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1720.4 | -9.8 |
| 2026-05-24 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1730.2 | — |
New York Knicks
1717.5
+39.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | San Antonio Spurs | 1717.5 | +12.2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1705.3 | +10.1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1695.2 | +9.2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1686.0 | +8.4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1677.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
San Antonio Spurs
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 95 | 105 | -10 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 111 | 103 | +8 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 118 | 91 | +27 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 114 | 127 | -13 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 103 | 82 | +21 |
New York Knicks
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 105 | 95 | +10 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 130 | 93 | +37 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 121 | 108 | +13 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 109 | 93 | +16 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 115 | 104 | +11 |
Game Analysis
Over the last three games the Spurs are 2-1: wins of 118-91 and 111-103 over Oklahoma City and a 95-105 loss to the Knicks. The Knicks enter this meeting on a three-game winning streak, including back-to-back wins over Cleveland (130-93 and 121-108) and the 105-95 victory over San Antonio. That form swing shows New York’s offense rolling while San Antonio has responded well in two bounce-back wins.
Looking at the projected starting units, San Antonio’s five average offensive rating is 118.44, defensive rating 109.10, and average points made 16.94. New York’s starters average offensive rating 122.70, defensive rating 111.28, and average points made 17.80. In short, the Knicks’ starters profile as the stronger offensive unit while the Spurs boast the better defensive profile — highlighted by Victor Wembanyama’s 99.4 defensive rating and 24.6 scoring average versus Jalen Brunson’s 121.7 offensive rating and 26.2 scoring average.
Final Prediction
The Spurs get the nod because their defensive profile and recent bounce-back wins offset New York’s offensive surge, producing the 64.0% probability. Watch the matchup between Wembanyama and the Knicks’ high-powered scorers — how well San Antonio limits Brunson and Towns will likely decide the outcome.
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