NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
52.8%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
47.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 24.5 REB 3.7 AST 5.7 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.0 REB 7.4 AST 4.8 3PM 1.5
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PTS 13.5 REB 4.2 AST 3.1 3PM 1.5
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PTS 15.0 REB 5.2 AST 1.9 3PM 1.9
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PTS 17.4 REB 10.9 AST 3.0 3PM 1.3
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 16.7 REB 3.8 AST 5.6 3PM 1.6
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PTS 18.2 REB 5.2 AST 6.2 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 12.8 REB 4.4 AST 2.8 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 12.0 REB 5.5 AST 1.8 3PM 2.5
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PTS 24.9 REB 10.2 AST 3.1 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.2
DR
115.3
PTS
26.1
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
116.8
DR
112.0
PTS
18.1
SG
Josh Hart
OR
117.2
DR
108.8
PTS
11.6
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
117.0
DR
111.1
PTS
17.1
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
126.0
DR
112.8
PTS
14.4
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
117.1
DR
112.3
PTS
13.7
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
122.8
DR
110.8
PTS
17.1
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.7
DR
110.6
PTS
11.2
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
125.4
DR
108.0
PTS
19.6
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.2
DR
99.4
PTS
24.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The New York Knicks are projected to win (52.8% probability). Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns. San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 215.15 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with room for both half-court sets and transition scoring. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 3.87, giving the home team about a 3.9-point edge on the line.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 215.2 Most likely outcome: 215 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - San Antonio Spurs) 3.9 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

The Knicks have rising momentum (+41.9 over five games) while the Spurs have been essentially flat (+2.0), leaving New York with clearer upward trajectory.

New York Knicks

1727.9 +41.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-06-05 San Antonio Spurs 1727.9 +10.4
2026-06-03 San Antonio Spurs 1717.5 +12.2
2026-05-25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1705.3 +10.1
2026-05-23 Cleveland Cavaliers 1695.2 +9.2
2026-05-21 Cleveland Cavaliers 1686.0 —

San Antonio Spurs

1722.4 +2.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-06-05 New York Knicks 1722.4 -10.5
2026-06-03 New York Knicks 1732.9 -12.1
2026-05-30 Oklahoma City Thunder 1745.0 +11.4
2026-05-28 Oklahoma City Thunder 1733.6 +13.2
2026-05-26 Oklahoma City Thunder 1720.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 105 104 +1
San Antonio Spurs 105 95 +10
Cleveland Cavaliers 130 93 +37
Cleveland Cavaliers 121 108 +13
Cleveland Cavaliers 109 93 +16

San Antonio Spurs

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 104 105 -1
New York Knicks 95 105 -10
Oklahoma City Thunder 111 103 +8
Oklahoma City Thunder 118 91 +27
Oklahoma City Thunder 114 127 -13

Game Analysis

New York arrives on a three-game winning streak, including two recent wins over San Antonio (105-104 and 105-95) and a dominant 130-93 victory over Cleveland. San Antonio has split those last three with two losses to the Knicks and a 111-103 win over Oklahoma City, indicating they’ve struggled to contain New York’s balance in recent matchups. Looking at the expected fives, New York’s starters average an offensive rating of 122.52, defensive rating of 111.14, and 17.76 average points made — a group built for high-end scoring. San Antonio’s starting five averages an offensive rating of 118.36, defensive rating of 109.08, and 16.96 average points made; Victor Wembanyama’s defensive rating of 99.4 stands out as a disruptive factor for New York’s offense.

Final Prediction

The Knicks’ recent form, higher average offensive rating, and rising power rating give them the edge in a close game. Watch how San Antonio uses Wembanyama defensively and whether the Spurs can slow New York’s balanced scoring attack — that matchup will likely decide the outcome.

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