Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Roberto Carballes Baena vs Arthur Rinderknech Prediction

Roberto Carballes Baena

Rank: #87
33%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #70
67%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Arthur Rinderknech

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Ranking Trends

Roberto Carballes Baena

  • Current #87 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #63 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #50 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #57 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #55 2024-08-26

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current #70 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #75 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #61 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #59 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #56 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Roberto Carballes Baena

Form Index: 34.9
ELO Rating: 909.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.7

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 35.7
ELO Rating: 1005.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Roberto Carballes Baena
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Arthur Rinderknech
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roberto Carballes Baena
vs
0
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the first round of the 2025 US Open, Roberto Carballes Baena faces off against Arthur Rinderknech on hard courts in New York. Rinderknech is favored to win with a probability of 67.17%, while Carballes Baena has a win probability of 32.83%. The match is projected to see around 36 total games played.

Match Analysis

Roberto Carballes Baena, ranked 87, has a form index of 34.94 and an Elo rating of 909.50. His surface strength index of 9.07 indicates a moderate proficiency on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.30 and a mean return index of 87.70. In contrast, Arthur Rinderknech, ranked 70, possesses a slightly higher form index of 35.74 and a more robust Elo rating of 1005.23. Rinderknech's mean serve index of 96.52 is marginally better, while his return index of 85.57 reflects a solid but less effective return game compared to Carballes Baena. The differences in their serve indices are minimal, but the return index shows a gap of over 5 points, favoring Carballes Baena. Analyzing recent performances, Carballes Baena has struggled, losing his last match against Frances Tiafoe, while he managed a win against Hugo Gaston in the previous round. Conversely, Rinderknech has shown mixed results, notably defeating Casper Ruud but recently falling to Felix Auger-Aliassime and Hamad Medjedovic. Both players enter the match with no cumulative fatigue, but Rinderknech's overall consistency in recent matches may give him an advantage.

Final Prediction

Arthur Rinderknech holds a notable edge with a higher Elo rating and recent match success, positioning him as the likely victor. The effectiveness of Rinderknech's serve and his ability to capitalize on Carballes Baena's return game will be crucial factors to monitor throughout the contest.

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