Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Ben Shelton vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #7
54%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #17
46%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current Rank: #7 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2024-10-28)

Andrey Rublev

  • Current Rank: #17 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #10 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #7 (2024-10-28)

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 42.8
ELO Rating: 1675.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1746.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 92.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 84.5

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 44.7
ELO Rating: 1684.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1848.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 158.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 27.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Paris 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-2) hard Basel 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs David Goffin (0-2) hard Shanghai 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Paris 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) hard Paris 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Vienna 126 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yoshihito Nishioka (1-2) hard Shanghai 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) hard Beijing 112 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the prestigious Masters 1000 event in Paris, Ben Shelton is set to face Andrey Rublev on hard courts. The match promises to be a tightly contested battle, with Shelton slightly favored to win at a probability of 53.76%, while Rublev sits at 46.24%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated to be 24.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton, currently ranked 7th, boasts a form index of 42.79 and an Elo rating of 1675.46. Despite his high rank, he has been battling fatigue, with 92 minutes accumulated during the tournament. His surface strength index is a solid 13.83, complemented by an impressive mean serve index of 97.93, indicating his ability to dominate on his serve. In contrast, Andrey Rublev, ranked 17th, has a slightly higher Elo rating of 1684.54 and a form index of 44.73. However, he carries a greater fatigue burden of 158 minutes. Rublev's mean serve index is 96.13, which is close to Shelton's, but his mean return index of 87.23 surpasses Shelton's 84.53 by over 5 points, suggesting he has a stronger return game. In their recent performances, Shelton faced challenges, winning his last match convincingly against Flavio Cobolli but suffering losses in his prior two matches against Jaume Munar and David Goffin. Conversely, Rublev has shown resilience, winning his last two matches against Learner Tien and Jacob Fearnley, while experiencing a tough loss to Cameron Norrie in Vienna. The contrasting momentum could play a crucial role in their encounter.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton is favored to win due to his higher rank and serve strength, although Rublev's better return index presents a formidable challenge. A key factor to watch will be Shelton's ability to maintain his serve against Rublev's strong return game, as this could dictate the outcome of the match.