Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Finals

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
56%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
44%
Predicted Games Played: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Ranking Trends

Jannik Sinner

  • Current Rank: #1 (2025-05-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #1 (2025-02-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1 (2024-11-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1 (2024-08-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #2 (2024-05-27)

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-05-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-02-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2024-11-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-08-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-05-27)

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 96.6
ELO Rating: 11702.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2162.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 98.9
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 88.9

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 96.9
ELO Rating: 6533.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2360.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 1044.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 59.7
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Novak Djokovic (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Richard Gasquet (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jannik Sinner
vs
4
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 2
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The highly anticipated final at Roland Garros features top-ranked Jannik Sinner facing off against the second-ranked Carlos Alcaraz on the red clay of Paris. With a predicted total of 35 games and Sinner holding a slight edge, he is forecasted to win with a probability of 55.51%, while Alcaraz stands at 44.49%.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner enters the match as the world number one, boasting an impressive form index of 96.59 and an Elo rating of 11,702. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 870 minutes, which is relatively moderate. Sinner's surface strength index of 98.89 highlights his proficiency on clay, complemented by a mean serve index of 97.92, significantly higher than Alcaraz’s 94.71, indicating a notable serve advantage. Conversely, Alcaraz, ranked second, has a form index of 96.89 and an Elo rating of 6,533. His fatigue level is higher at 1,044 minutes, potentially impacting his performance. Both players have displayed exceptional form in their recent matches. Sinner has dominated, winning all three of his last matches in straight sets, including a convincing victory over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. In contrast, Alcaraz has also been strong, winning his last three matches but faced a tougher challenge against Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinals, conceding a set. This slight variation in performance could play a pivotal role in the final.

Final Prediction

Sinner's superior serve and higher surface strength index provide him with a significant advantage heading into the match. The key factor to watch will be Sinner's ability to maintain his serving consistency under pressure, which could prove decisive in the outcome of this grand slam final.