Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction

Casper Ruud

Rank: #24
44%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #6
56%
Expected Total Games: 26.8
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Why the Model Favors Felix Auger-Aliassime

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +3.6 Casper Ruud
Surface fit +2.8 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Overall strength +2.4 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Recent record by level +1.9 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Serve & return game +1.5 Casper Ruud

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 56% for Felix Auger-Aliassime. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Casper Ruud

  • Current #24 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #12 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #12 2025-09-29

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #6 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #4 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #7 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #5 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 42.3
ELO Rating: 1813.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1843.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 213.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.8
Clay: 42.8
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 89.7

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 1844.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1884.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 297.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.2
Clay: 32.8
Grass: 35.4
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
1
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Felix Auger-Aliassime is a slight favorite, with a 56% win probability against Casper Ruud’s 44%, and 26.8 games are expected. The Shanghai Round of 16 match is close, but Auger-Aliassime holds the forecast advantage.

Match Analysis

Ruud arrives with the stronger recent results: he has won his last two Shanghai matches in straight sets, most recently against Learner Tien. Auger-Aliassime also won his two Shanghai matches, but needed three sets in each. The hard-court matchup and broader strength favor Auger-Aliassime, whose No. 6 ranking is well ahead of Ruud’s No. 24. Ruud’s stronger return game gives him a way to disrupt that edge and keep the contest close.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.8 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Casper Ruud - Felix Auger-Aliassime) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Ruud is projected for 7.1 aces and 2.9 double faults, while Auger-Aliassime is forecast at 9.0 aces and 3.3 double faults. Their serve profiles are nearly even, which fits the modest projected gap in aces, and the hard court’s predictable bounce gives both a reliable platform to serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.4 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Casper Ruud 7.1 + Felix Auger-Aliassime 9.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Casper Ruud 2.9 + Felix Auger-Aliassime 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Casper Ruud

Expected 7.1 aces

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Expected 9.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Casper Ruud

Expected 2.9 double faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Casper Ruud's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s ability to make his stronger return count is his best chance to upset the forecast. If he consistently pressures Auger-Aliassime’s service games, he can counter the Canadian’s hard-court advantage.

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