Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #18
49%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #20
51%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #18 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #9 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #8 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #5 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #5 2024-09-30

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #20 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #28 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #61 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #64 2024-09-30

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 42.1
ELO Rating: 2981.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2073.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 75.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.9

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 55.0
ELO Rating: 1352.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1696.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 64.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match between Daniil Medvedev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Beijing tournament promises to be a tightly contested affair on hard courts. With both players showing competitive form, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is slightly favored to win, with a probability of 51.14%, compared to Medvedev's 48.86%. The predicted total number of games played is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 18, showcases a form index of 42.1 and an Elo rating of 2981.9. His cumulative fatigue stands at 75 minutes, reflecting his recent matches, which may influence his performance. Medvedev's surface strength index is at 29.0, indicating a solid capability on hard courts. Notably, he possesses a mean serve index of 96.7, which is 2.0 points higher than Davidovich Fokina's 94.7, suggesting a slight advantage in serving power. However, Medvedev's mean return index of 87.9 also has a marginal edge over Fokina's 87.2, but the difference is not substantial. On the other hand, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, ranked 20, has a form index of 54.9 and an Elo rating of 1352.8. With a lower fatigue level of 64 minutes, he may have a slight physical advantage. His recent performances include a solid victory against Camilo Ugo Carabelli in Beijing, where he won decisively. However, he faced a setback at the US Open against Arthur Rinderknech but secured a previous win against Alexander Shevchenko, demonstrating his resilience.

Final Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's slightly better form index and lower fatigue level provide him with an edge in this match-up. His recent positive performance on the hard surface may also boost his confidence. A key factor to watch will be how both players manage their energy levels, especially Medvedev, given his higher cumulative fatigue from the tournament.

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