Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Fabian Marozsan vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #52
35%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #18
65%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Fabian Marozsan

  • Current Rank: #52 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #56 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #77 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #59 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #57 (2024-10-14)

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #18 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #14 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #9 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2024-10-14)

Player Metrics

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 53.1
ELO Rating: 1214.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1630.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 159.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.4
Clay: 10.0
Grass: 7.7
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.9

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 63.4
ELO Rating: 2986.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2073.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 104.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 41.0
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Fabian Marozsan
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Almaty 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (2-0) hard Almaty 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) hard Shanghai 140 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-1) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Beijing 80 min

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Almaty 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) hard Shanghai 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) hard Shanghai 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-1) hard Shanghai 172 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Shanghai 111 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Fabian Marozsan
vs
1
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the quarterfinals of the ATP 250 event in Almaty, Kazakhstan, approach, Fabian Marozsan faces off against Daniil Medvedev on hard court. The predicted winner is Daniil Medvedev, with a probability of winning at 64.98%, while Marozsan has a 35.02% chance. The anticipated total number of games in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 18, holds a significant advantage over Marozsan, who is ranked 52. Medvedev's form index stands at 63.44 compared to Marozsan's 53.11, indicating a more consistent performance recently. His Elo rating of 2986.29 far surpasses Marozsan's 1214.21, highlighting a stark contrast in experience and skill levels. Fatigue also favors Medvedev, who has accumulated 104 minutes on court, compared to Marozsan's 159 minutes, suggesting that Marozsan may be more fatigued heading into this match. Notably, Medvedev boasts a higher surface strength index of 29.04 versus Marozsan's 10.37, emphasizing his effectiveness on hard courts. Both players have shown resilience in their recent matches. Marozsan is coming off two straight wins in Almaty, defeating Brandon Nakashima and Luca Nardi without dropping a set. However, prior to this tournament, he faced a tough loss against Taylor Fritz in Shanghai. Conversely, Medvedev won his last match against Adam Walton, showcasing his ability to dominate even after a challenging outing against Arthur Rinderknech in the previous round. Medvedev's recent performances indicate he is on an upward trajectory, with a strong win against Alex de Minaur just before the Shanghai event.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and lower fatigue levels give him a distinct edge in this matchup against Fabian Marozsan. A key factor to watch will be Medvedev's ability to leverage his serve and return strengths, as he leads Marozsan in both serve and return indices, especially given the notable gap in their mean return index.