Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Mattia Bellucci vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #63
13%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
87%
Predicted Games Played: 34.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current Rank: #63 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #68 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #70 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #102 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #101 (2024-08-26)

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 56.2
ELO Rating: 848.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1541.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 86.6

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 77.2
ELO Rating: 6790.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2361.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.8
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-2) hard Winston Salem 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Winston Salem 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (0-2) hard Cincinnati 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Gaston (1-2) hard Toronto 115 min

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (1-0) hard Cincinnati 23 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-0) hard Cincinnati 105 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Cincinnati 137 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (2-0) hard Cincinnati 80 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Mattia Bellucci and Carlos Alcaraz in the Round of 64 at the US Open promises to be a compelling contest on hard court. With Alcaraz ranked 2nd and Bellucci at 63rd, the odds heavily favor Alcaraz, who has an 87.42% probability of winning compared to Bellucci's 12.58%. The predicted total number of games played is approximately 34.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz showcases impressive statistics with a rank of 2, a form index of 77.24, and an Elo rating of 6790.31, all of which highlight his elite status in the game. He also possesses a substantial surface strength index of 55.84. In contrast, Mattia Bellucci, ranked 63, has a form index of 56.20 and an Elo rating of 848.01, indicating a significant gap in performance levels. Both players have accumulated 174 minutes of fatigue in this tournament, but Alcaraz's surface strength and overall skill set on hard courts give him a notable advantage. The difference in their mean serve index, where Bellucci stands at 97.31 and Alcaraz at 94.29, is less than 5 points, suggesting a competitive serving game. However, Alcaraz edges out with a mean return index of 87.12 compared to Bellucci's 86.61. Reviewing recent performances, Alcaraz has won his last three matches convincingly, including a straight-sets victory against Reilly Opelka in his latest outing. His form appears to be peaking as he progresses through the tournament. On the other hand, Bellucci's recent results are mixed, having won against Juncheng Shang but previously lost to Jaume Munar, which may affect his confidence heading into this match.

Final Prediction

Alcaraz's higher ranking, superior form index, and consistent performance in recent matches provide him with a distinct edge over Bellucci. A key factor to monitor during the match will be how effectively Bellucci can handle Alcaraz's return game, given the latter's strong statistics in this area.