Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Novak Djokovic vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #7
68%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #145
32%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

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Ranking Trends

Novak Djokovic

  • Current #7 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #6 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #7 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #7 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #2 2024-08-26

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #145 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #87 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #46 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #43 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #35 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 95.7
ELO Rating: 3511.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2548.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.3
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 33.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 87.4

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 91.4
ELO Rating: 1242.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1649.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 1044.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.7
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 12.2
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.1

Recent Matches

Novak Djokovic
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Novak Djokovic
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match at the 2025 US Open in New York features a compelling clash between Novak Djokovic and Jan-Lennard Struff on hard courts. Djokovic, ranked 7th, is favored to win with a probability of 68.40%, while Struff, ranked 145th, has a win probability of 31.60%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 37.0.

Match Analysis

Novak Djokovic enters this match with a form index of 95.72 and an Elo rating of 3511.89, showcasing his high-level performance. His cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes indicates he has managed his energy well throughout the tournament. Djokovic also boasts a strong surface strength index of 31.25, reflecting his proficiency on hard courts. His mean serve index of 96.37 significantly surpasses Struff's mean serve index of 95.57, providing him a notable advantage in serving. Furthermore, Djokovic's mean return index of 87.41 exceeds Struff's 85.15, highlighting his superior return game. In contrast, Jan-Lennard Struff, while demonstrating solid form with a form index of 91.42, has faced a higher cumulative fatigue of 1044 minutes, which may impact his performance. Struff's recent matches have shown resilience, winning all three of his last encounters, including a decisive victory over Frances Tiafoe. However, his lower rank and surface strength index of 10.67 indicate that he has both physical and psychological challenges against a seasoned competitor like Djokovic.

Final Prediction

Novak Djokovic is predicted to have the edge in this matchup due to his higher ranking, superior serve and return indices, and more favorable fatigue levels. A key factor to watch will be Djokovic's ability to leverage his serving strength against Struff’s return game, which could dictate the pace and control of the match.

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