Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Finals

Taylor Fritz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Prediction

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #12
68%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #53
32%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Why the Model Favors Taylor Fritz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.2 Taylor Fritz
Overall strength +4.9 Taylor Fritz
Recent record by level +3.4 Taylor Fritz
Recent form +2.4 Taylor Fritz
Surface fit +2.2 Taylor Fritz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for Taylor Fritz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Taylor Fritz

  • Current #12 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #7 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #7 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-11-10

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #53 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #69 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #92 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-11-10

Player Metrics

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 63.6
ELO Rating: 1944.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1928.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 149.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 45.1
Clay: 21.6
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 88.5

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 43.6
ELO Rating: 1708.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1758.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 379.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.6
Clay: 28.7
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Taylor Fritz
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Taylor Fritz
vs
1
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Taylor Fritz is favoured in the Stockholm Finals, at 68% to 32%, with 25.7 total games expected. The gap reflects Fritz’s stronger overall level, though Thiago Agustin Tirante arrives on a three-match winning streak.

Match Analysis

Fritz has the clearer serve-and-return profile and a substantial ranking advantage, sitting 12th compared with Tirante at 53rd. He has also won his last two Stockholm matches in straight sets, against Cameron Norrie and Lorenzo Musetti. Tirante has answered with three consecutive Stockholm wins, including a straight-set victory over Alejandro Tabilo, so his recent form gives him a credible chance to challenge. Fritz is the better fit for hard courts, and he has spent far less time on court this week: 149 minutes against Tirante’s 379.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Taylor Fritz - Thiago Agustin Tirante) +2.7 Most likely spread: +3 (Taylor Fritz wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Fritz is projected for 12.6 aces and Tirante for 10.6. The forecast has Fritz at 1.9 double faults and Tirante at 2.6. Fritz’s slightly stronger serve profile fits the lower expected count, while the hard court should allow both to use their serve effectively.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 20.1 Most likely: 21 aces Per player: Taylor Fritz 12.6 + Thiago Agustin Tirante 10.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Taylor Fritz 1.9 + Thiago Agustin Tirante 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Taylor Fritz

Expected 12.6 aces

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 10.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Taylor Fritz

Expected 1.9 double faults

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

58.7% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Taylor Fritz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (45.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tirante’s Stockholm winning streak is the clearest threat to the forecast. If he sustains that form against Fritz’s stronger serve-and-return game, he can make the favourite’s advantage less decisive.

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