Barrow
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #24 of 24 in League Two 36 pts · 9W–9D–28L · GD -33
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Barrow?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Barrow's results were 4.4% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Barrow | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.3% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #24 | 1482 | 1520 | 1326 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #11 | 1475 | 1550 | 1503 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #18 | 1472 | 1655 | 1445 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #20 | 1479 | 1569 | 1427 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #20 | 1469 | 1508 | 1415 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #15 | 1492 | 1526 | 1459 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Newport County | W Barrow 34.4% · draw 31.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Cambridge | L Barrow 4.0% · draw 10.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Walsall | L Barrow 29.0% · draw 28.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Oldham | L Barrow 24.5% · draw 26.3% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Barnet | L Barrow 8.8% · draw 14.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Chesterfield | L Barrow 23.9% · draw 26.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Milton Keynes Dons | L Barrow 7.8% · draw 13.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Bromley | L Barrow 23.4% · draw 25.3% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Grimsby | L Barrow 11.0% · draw 17.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Salford | L Barrow 10.2% · draw 17.3% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/barrow">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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