Milton Keynes Dons
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 24 in League Two 86 pts · 24W–14D–8L · GD +41
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Milton Keynes Dons?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Milton Keynes Dons's results were 3.1% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Milton Keynes Dons | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 53.7% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #1 | 1498 | 1689 | 1651 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #21 | 1532 | 1602 | 1398 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #5 | 1552 | 1596 | 1578 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #17 | 1608 | 1608 | 1441 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #1 | 1492 | 1711 | 1673 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #12 | 1463 | 1564 | 1492 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #16 | 1447 | 1472 | 1447 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #6 | 1681 | 1704 | 1538 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #22 | 1515 | 1546 | 1405 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #8 | 1638 | 1638 | 1548 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #23 | 1530 | 1530 | 1326 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #2 | 1459 | 1657 | 1657 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #18 | 1527 | 1568 | 1423 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #8 | 1569 | 1619 | 1532 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #7 | 1573 | 1662 | 1572 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #5 | 1455 | 1634 | 1600 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #22 | 1586 | 1643 | 1399 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #4 | 1457 | 1649 | 1619 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #1 | 1528 | 1720 | 1707 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #6 | 1517 | 1630 | 1585 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #16 | 1498 | 1500 | 1469 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Fleetwood Town | W Milton Keynes Dons 44.7% · draw 28.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Tranmere | W Milton Keynes Dons 74.5% · draw 16.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Crewe | W Milton Keynes Dons 41.2% · draw 29.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Bromley | W Milton Keynes Dons 48.6% · draw 28.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Oldham | W Milton Keynes Dons 36.0% · draw 31.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Barrow | W Milton Keynes Dons 79.1% · draw 13.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Salford | L Milton Keynes Dons 33.2% · draw 31.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Barnet | W Milton Keynes Dons 52.9% · draw 25.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Colchester | W Milton Keynes Dons 58.6% · draw 24.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Swindon | W Milton Keynes Dons 38.1% · draw 30.6% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/milton-keynes-dons">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/milton-keynes-dons">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>