Milton Keynes Dons

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1405 · #22 League One 0W-6D-2L · 6 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #22 of 24 50.5 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 8 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.1%
Automatic promotion 0.1%
Promotion playoffs 0.5%
Relegation 48.8%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Milton Keynes Dons?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Milton Keynes Dons's results were 3.1% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketMilton Keynes DonsLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.7% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 46.3% 52.1%
Both teams to score 65.8% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League One #22 1459 1461 1406
2025-26 League Two #1 1498 1689 1651
2024-25 League Two #21 1532 1602 1398
2023-24 League Two #5 1552 1596 1578
2022-23 League One #17 1608 1608 1441
2021-22 League One #1 1492 1711 1673
2020-21 League One #12 1463 1564 1492
2019-20 League One #16 1447 1472 1447
2018-19 League Two #6 1681 1704 1538
2017-18 League One #22 1515 1546 1405
2016-17 League One #8 1638 1638 1548
2015-16 Championship #23 1530 1530 1326
2014-15 League One #2 1459 1657 1657
2013-14 League One #18 1527 1568 1423
2012-13 League One #8 1569 1619 1532
2011-12 League One #7 1573 1662 1572
2010-11 League One #5 1455 1634 1600
2009-10 League One #22 1586 1643 1399
2008-09 League One #4 1457 1649 1619
2007-08 League Two #1 1528 1720 1707
2006-07 League Two #6 1517 1630 1585
2005-06 League One #16 1498 1500 1469

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Reading L Milton Keynes Dons 29.9% · draw 28.5% L ✓
Sep 17, 2026 at AFC Wimbledon L Milton Keynes Dons 31.1% · draw 31.4% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Peterboro W Milton Keynes Dons 39.1% · draw 31.0% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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