Bromley
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #21 of 24 53.8 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 4 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 24 in League Two 87 pts · 24W-15D-7L · GD +25
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bromley?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bromley's results were 8.2% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bromley | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 58.5% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League One | #16 | 1523 | 1523 | 1462 |
| 2025-26 | League Two | #5 | 1502 | 1696 | 1611 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #7 | 1549 | 1565 | 1538 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Walsall | W Bromley 44.2% · draw 29.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | at Salford | L Bromley 25.7% · draw 29.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 16, 2026 | vs Cambridge | L Bromley 33.2% · draw 31.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Milton Keynes Dons | L Bromley 22.6% · draw 28.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Shrewsbury | W Bromley 57.5% · draw 24.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Barnet | L Bromley 28.5% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Barrow | W Bromley 51.4% · draw 25.3% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Colchester | W Bromley 52.5% · draw 26.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Newport County | W Bromley 55.8% · draw 23.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Bristol Rvs | W Bromley 59.8% · draw 24.1% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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