Barnet
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 24 in League Two 76 pts · 21W–13D–12L · GD +17
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Barnet?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Barnet's results were 10.6% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Barnet | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 36.6% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #2 | 1467 | 1640 | 1640 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #14 | 1477 | 1500 | 1464 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #19 | 1549 | 1578 | 1426 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #11 | 1462 | 1542 | 1518 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #18 | 1417 | 1522 | 1466 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #22 | 1510 | 1510 | 1414 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #14 | 1381 | 1483 | 1483 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #24 | 1441 | 1560 | 1367 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #16 | 1469 | 1527 | 1450 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #8 | 1494 | 1575 | 1503 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #10 | 1459 | 1535 | 1490 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #13 | 1498 | 1572 | 1480 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Harrogate | W Barnet 56.4% · draw 23.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Gillingham | W Barnet 64.2% · draw 20.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Notts County | L Barnet 31.5% · draw 31.1% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Barrow | W Barnet 76.7% · draw 14.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Fleetwood Town | L Barnet 32.2% · draw 31.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Bromley | W Barnet 40.6% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Cambridge | L Barnet 32.5% · draw 30.3% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Milton Keynes Dons | L Barnet 21.4% · draw 25.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Crawley Town | W Barnet 46.4% · draw 26.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Newport County | W Barnet 79.4% · draw 14.2% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/barnet">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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