Barnet
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #1 of 24 84.7 expected pts · currently 18 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 24 in League Two 76 pts · 21W-13D-12L · GD +17
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Barnet?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Barnet's results were 10.6% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Barnet | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 36.6% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League Two | #1 | 1626 | 1671 | 1671 |
| 2025-26 | League Two | #2 | 1467 | 1640 | 1640 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #14 | 1477 | 1500 | 1464 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #19 | 1549 | 1578 | 1426 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #11 | 1462 | 1542 | 1518 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #18 | 1417 | 1522 | 1466 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #22 | 1510 | 1510 | 1414 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #14 | 1381 | 1483 | 1483 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #24 | 1441 | 1560 | 1367 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #16 | 1469 | 1527 | 1450 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #8 | 1494 | 1575 | 1503 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #10 | 1459 | 1535 | 1490 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #13 | 1498 | 1572 | 1480 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Bristol Rvs | L Barnet 31.6% · draw 30.9% | W ✗ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Fleetwood Town | W Barnet 50.4% · draw 28.2% | W ✓ |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Accrington | W Barnet 59.4% · draw 23.3% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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