Fortuna Dusseldorf
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 37 pts · 11W–4D–19L · GD -20
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Fortuna Dusseldorf?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Fortuna Dusseldorf's results were 3.2% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Fortuna Dusseldorf | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 55.2% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #17 | 1477 | 1516 | 1428 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #6 | 1652 | 1699 | 1545 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1598 | 1656 | 1656 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1551 | 1607 | 1607 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #7 | 1573 | 1573 | 1538 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #6 | 1543 | 1634 | 1563 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | #14 | 1533 | 1533 | 1407 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #8 | 1471 | 1522 | 1507 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1498 | 1640 | 1585 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Greuther Furth | L Fortuna Dusseldorf 34.0% · draw 29.9% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Elversberg | L Fortuna Dusseldorf 27.6% · draw 28.2% | W ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Schalke 04 | L Fortuna Dusseldorf 20.7% · draw 25.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Dresden | W Fortuna Dusseldorf 37.5% · draw 30.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Magdeburg | L Fortuna Dusseldorf 31.1% · draw 29.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Holstein Kiel | W Fortuna Dusseldorf 39.9% · draw 30.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Kaiserslautern | L Fortuna Dusseldorf 34.1% · draw 30.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Hertha | W Fortuna Dusseldorf 35.4% · draw 30.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Braunschweig | W Fortuna Dusseldorf 35.1% · draw 31.1% | L ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Nurnberg | L Fortuna Dusseldorf 31.1% · draw 30.7% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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