Harrogate
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #23 of 24 in League Two 39 pts · 10W–9D–27L · GD -29
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Harrogate?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Harrogate's results were 0.1% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Harrogate | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 61.0% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 41.5% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #16 | 1529 | 1542 | 1430 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #18 | 1444 | 1479 | 1456 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #11 | 1540 | 1564 | 1468 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #11 | 1460 | 1535 | 1528 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #21 | 1478 | 1560 | 1406 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #20 | 1542 | 1574 | 1440 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Barnet | L Harrogate 20.3% · draw 23.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Walsall | L Harrogate 13.6% · draw 22.1% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Colchester | L Harrogate 23.4% · draw 25.6% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Newport County | L Harrogate 26.9% · draw 29.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Bristol Rvs | L Harrogate 27.5% · draw 29.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Grimsby | L Harrogate 5.3% · draw 11.3% | W ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Notts County | L Harrogate 21.6% · draw 23.1% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Oldham | L Harrogate 9.1% · draw 16.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Tranmere | L Harrogate 24.7% · draw 29.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Salford | L Harrogate 23.8% · draw 24.1% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/harrogate">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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