Colchester
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 24 in League Two 66 pts · 18W–12D–16L · GD +13
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Colchester?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Colchester's results were 0.4% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Colchester | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.9% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #11 | 1498 | 1602 | 1502 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #8 | 1434 | 1621 | 1530 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #20 | 1458 | 1477 | 1438 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #14 | 1498 | 1524 | 1464 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #10 | 1459 | 1514 | 1514 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #19 | 1558 | 1582 | 1443 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #6 | 1512 | 1607 | 1574 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #8 | 1470 | 1575 | 1522 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #15 | 1513 | 1600 | 1457 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #6 | 1500 | 1586 | 1539 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #23 | 1498 | 1560 | 1363 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #11 | 1448 | 1494 | 1494 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #15 | 1494 | 1508 | 1448 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #20 | 1490 | 1528 | 1456 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #10 | 1505 | 1548 | 1487 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #13 | 1482 | 1574 | 1462 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #15 | 1533 | 1618 | 1475 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #12 | 1542 | 1589 | 1499 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #24 | 1533 | 1554 | 1347 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #10 | 1482 | 1596 | 1536 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #1 | 1482 | 1667 | 1597 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Cheltenham | W Colchester 41.4% · draw 29.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Notts County | W Colchester 40.8% · draw 31.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Harrogate | W Colchester 51.0% · draw 25.6% | L ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Accrington | W Colchester 58.4% · draw 24.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Swindon | W Colchester 38.0% · draw 31.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Tranmere | W Colchester 39.2% · draw 29.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Oldham | W Colchester 36.7% · draw 31.6% | L ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Walsall | W Colchester 37.8% · draw 31.7% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Bromley | L Colchester 20.8% · draw 26.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | at Milton Keynes Dons | L Colchester 16.7% · draw 24.7% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/colchester">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/colchester">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>