Colchester

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1469 · #17 League Two 2W-4D-3L · 10 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #17 of 24 56.9 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 9 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 2.5%
Automatic promotion 1.1%
Promotion playoffs 7.3%
Relegation 10.8%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Colchester?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Colchester's results were 0.4% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketColchesterLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 43.9% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 63.4% 52.1%
Both teams to score 48.8% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #17 1498 1528 1469
2025-26 League Two #11 1498 1602 1502
2024-25 League Two #8 1434 1621 1530
2023-24 League Two #20 1458 1477 1438
2022-23 League Two #14 1498 1524 1464
2021-22 League Two #10 1459 1514 1514
2020-21 League Two #19 1558 1582 1443
2019-20 League Two #6 1512 1607 1574
2018-19 League Two #8 1470 1575 1522
2017-18 League Two #15 1513 1600 1457
2016-17 League Two #6 1500 1586 1539
2015-16 League One #23 1498 1560 1363
2014-15 League One #11 1448 1494 1494
2013-14 League One #15 1494 1508 1448
2012-13 League One #20 1490 1528 1456
2011-12 League One #10 1505 1548 1487
2010-11 League One #13 1482 1574 1462
2009-10 League One #15 1533 1618 1475
2008-09 League One #12 1542 1589 1499
2007-08 Championship #24 1533 1554 1347
2006-07 Championship #10 1482 1596 1536
2005-06 League One #1 1482 1667 1597

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Newport County L Colchester 29.7% · draw 31.4% L ✓
Sep 26, 2026 at Shrewsbury L Colchester 29.4% · draw 31.4% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 vs Cheltenham W Colchester 50.8% · draw 28.0% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Crewe W Colchester 37.7% · draw 31.3% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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