Preußen Münster
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #18 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 30 pts · 6W–12D–16L · GD -23
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Preußen Münster?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Preußen Münster's results were 1.1% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Preußen Münster | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 44.8% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #18 | 1482 | 1525 | 1357 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1480 | 1503 | 1503 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Elversberg | L Preußen Münster 11.7% · draw 17.0% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Darmstadt | L Preußen Münster 31.6% · draw 28.1% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Hannover | L Preußen Münster 12.8% · draw 18.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Bielefeld | L Preußen Münster 30.3% · draw 28.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Schalke 04 | L Preußen Münster 20.5% · draw 25.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Greuther Furth | W Preußen Münster 45.6% · draw 29.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Holstein Kiel | L Preußen Münster 30.8% · draw 29.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Magdeburg | L Preußen Münster 33.3% · draw 28.1% | L ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Dresden | L Preußen Münster 32.7% · draw 30.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Hertha | L Preußen Münster 32.9% · draw 30.7% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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