NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

New Orleans Pelicans

Home Team
28.1%
107.9 pts
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
71.9%
117.8 pts

Key Prediction Insights

The Oklahoma City Thunder are predicted to emerge victorious against the New Orleans Pelicans, with a 71.9% probability of victory. The expected scoreline is 117.8 for the Thunder against 107.9 for the Pelicans. The Pelicans' starting lineup is anticipated to include Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, and Derik Queen. Meanwhile, the Thunder will likely start with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Game Analysis

Recent performances suggest contrasting trends for these two teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have been struggling, coming off three consecutive losses against the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, and Portland Trail Blazers. Despite Zion Williamson's consistent scoring, they have been unable to secure a win, which underscores their defensive vulnerabilities, as evidenced by their high defensive ratings. In stark contrast, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been riding high on a winning streak, triumphing over the Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Golden State Warriors. This success is driven by their efficient offense, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with an impressive offensive rating of 137.3 and an average of 32.57 points per game. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein also contribute significantly to the team’s robust defense, both boasting defensive ratings around 100. The Pelicans' starting five have generally higher defensive ratings, indicating potential struggles to contain the Thunder's potent offense. While Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson show promise on offense, their defensive lapses could be exploited by the Thunder's high-scoring players.

Final Prediction

The Thunder hold the edge due to their balanced attack and solid defensive performances, making them the favorites to win this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's ability to penetrate the Pelicans' defense and maintain his scoring prowess. If the Pelicans hope to upset the odds, they will need to tighten their defense and find ways to disrupt the Thunder's offensive flow.