Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Arthur Rinderknech vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #77
13%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
87%
Predicted Games Played: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current Rank: #77 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #75 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #61 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #59 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #56 (2024-08-26)

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 76.9
ELO Rating: 1126.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 85.6

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 87.4
ELO Rating: 6790.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2361.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.8
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 86.9

Recent Matches

Arthur Rinderknech
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Carballes Baena (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) hard Winston Salem 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Cincinnati 121 min

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (1-0) hard Cincinnati 23 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-0) hard Cincinnati 105 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Rinderknech
vs
1
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

As the US Open reaches the Round of 16, Arthur Rinderknech faces off against the formidable Carlos Alcaraz on hard courts in New York. With Alcaraz currently ranked 2nd and Rinderknech ranked 77th, the odds heavily favor Alcaraz, who has an 87.19% probability of winning compared to Rinderknech's 12.81%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 35.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz enters this match with a significantly higher rank (2) and a form index of 87.36, indicating a strong performance trajectory. His Elo rating stands at 6790, showcasing his status as one of the top players in the game. In contrast, Arthur Rinderknech, ranked 77th, has a form index of 76.85 and an Elo rating of 1126. While both players share the same cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes from the current tournament, Alcaraz's surface strength index of 55.84 vastly outshines Rinderknech's index of 9.68. Notably, Alcaraz's mean serve index (94.16) is only slightly higher than Rinderknech's (97.76), but his mean return index (86.94) indicates a stronger return game compared to Rinderknech's (85.62). In their recent matchups, Alcaraz has demonstrated remarkable dominance, winning all three of his last matches without dropping a set. His latest victory against Luciano Darderi solidifies his strong form. Conversely, Rinderknech has also performed well, winning his last three matches, but he had to navigate through a more competitive set of circumstances, as seen in his 3-2 set victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, recent form, and stronger overall game metrics provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be Alcaraz's return game, as his ability to capitalize on Rinderknech’s serve could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.