Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Alexei Popyrin vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #25
45%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #12
55%
Predicted Games Played: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 80.7
ELO Rating: 1567.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1631.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 14.8
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 86.9

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 84.9
ELO Rating: 2712.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1793.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 24.2
Grass: 26.2
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin

  • Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alejandro Tabilo (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yoshihito Nishioka (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) clay Geneva 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) clay Geneva 70 min

Tommy Paul

  • Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marton Fucsovics (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Elmer Moller (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (1-2) clay Rome 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-0) clay Rome 118 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
1
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Round of 16 match at Roland Garros between Alexei Popyrin and Tommy Paul is set against the backdrop of one of tennis's most prestigious tournaments on clay. As both players aim for a place in the quarter-finals, predictions suggest Tommy Paul will emerge victorious, with a 54.55% probability of winning compared to Popyrin's 45.45%. The match is anticipated to feature around 37 games.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul, currently ranked 12th, boasts a solid form index of 84.92 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 2712.46 compared to Popyrin’s 1567.31. Both players have accumulated the same level of fatigue at 522 minutes, indicating they have faced similar challenges throughout the tournament. However, Paul's surface strength index of 24.23 surpasses Popyrin's 13.15, suggesting a greater proficiency on clay. The mean serve index shows a narrow margin, with Popyrin at 97.95 and Paul at 95.41, a difference that may not significantly impact their service games. Conversely, Paul holds a slightly superior mean return index of 88.43 against Popyrin’s 86.89, which could give him an edge in breaking serve. In their recent performances, both players have demonstrated strong form. Popyrin has won all three of his matches convincingly, with a clean sweep against his opponents in the last two games. Paul, while also winning his last three matches, faced stiffer competition, notably dropping sets against Karen Khachanov and Marton Fucsovics. This resilience in the face of tougher matches may bolster Paul's confidence as he prepares for Popyrin.

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul is favored to win due to his higher ranking, superior surface strength index, and recent match experience against tougher opponents. A key factor to watch will be Paul's return game, as his ability to capitalize on Popyrin's serve could play a crucial role in determining the match outcome.