Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Yoshihito Nishioka vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction

Yoshihito Nishioka

Rank: #74
40%
VS

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #25
60%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Alexei Popyrin

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Ranking Trends

Yoshihito Nishioka

  • Current #74 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #60 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #70 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #53 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #70 2024-05-27

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #25 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #27 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #24 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #28 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #51 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Yoshihito Nishioka

Form Index: 30.5
ELO Rating: 959.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 8.2
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 86.8

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 47.9
ELO Rating: 1528.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 14.9
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Yoshihito Nishioka
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yoshihito Nishioka
vs
0
Alexei Popyrin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at Roland Garros features Yoshihito Nishioka facing off against Alexei Popyrin in the Round of 128 on clay. With Popyrin currently favored to win, he holds a 60.12% probability of victory compared to Nishioka's 39.88%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 36.

Match Analysis

In terms of rankings, Popyrin is considerably higher at 25, while Nishioka is positioned at 74. This ranking disparity reflects their performance levels, as indicated by their Elo ratings; Popyrin boasts a rating of 1528.40 compared to Nishioka's 959.54. When examining their form indices, Popyrin's score of 47.92 surpasses Nishioka's 30.49, suggesting that Popyrin is in better form heading into this match. Both players have reported zero cumulative fatigue, indicating they are fresh for this encounter. Notably, Popyrin’s surface strength index of 12.81 is significantly higher than Nishioka’s 6.86, suggesting Popyrin's better adaptation to clay. In their recent performances, Nishioka has struggled, losing his last two matches consecutively against Dusan Lajovic and Hugo Gaston, failing to win a set in both instances. His only recent victory came in a hard-court match against Aleksandar Vukic. Conversely, Popyrin's recent form is more encouraging, having won a match against Jacob Fearnley and defeating Nicolas Jarry in a tightly contested three-set match before suffering a loss to Cameron Norrie.

Final Prediction

Overall, Popyrin's higher ranking, better recent form, and superior surface adaptability provide him with a clear advantage in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Popyrin's serve, as both players have similar mean serve indices, but his overall game on clay may give him the edge needed to control the match.

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