Cardiff
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 24 in League One 91 pts · 27W–10D–9L · GD +40
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Cardiff?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Cardiff's results were 9.2% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Cardiff | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.2% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 39.0% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #2 | 1518 | 1679 | 1626 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #24 | 1404 | 1478 | 1391 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #21 | 1464 | 1535 | 1424 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #16 | 1496 | 1511 | 1443 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #17 | 1548 | 1561 | 1453 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #6 | 1527 | 1611 | 1562 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #4 | 1568 | 1603 | 1591 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #17 | 1480 | 1480 | 1408 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #3 | 1560 | 1667 | 1618 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #7 | 1513 | 1565 | 1545 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #10 | 1513 | 1595 | 1515 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #10 | 1579 | 1600 | 1521 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #2 | 1568 | 1669 | 1595 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #6 | 1584 | 1633 | 1567 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #6 | 1558 | 1652 | 1575 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #5 | 1540 | 1610 | 1577 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #9 | 1531 | 1657 | 1530 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #10 | 1409 | 1581 | 1520 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #22 | 1479 | 1641 | 1405 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #18 | 1482 | 1547 | 1432 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Mansfield | W Cardiff 55.2% · draw 24.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Northampton | W Cardiff 90.2% · draw 6.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vs Port Vale | W Cardiff 80.7% · draw 13.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Reading | W Cardiff 48.6% · draw 26.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Huddersfield | W Cardiff 44.3% · draw 28.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Bolton | W Cardiff 53.7% · draw 26.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Peterboro | W Cardiff 52.3% · draw 25.1% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Blackpool | W Cardiff 79.4% · draw 12.8% | D ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Wycombe | W Cardiff 57.4% · draw 24.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Exeter | W Cardiff 51.7% · draw 24.4% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/cardiff">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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