Watford

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1368 · #23 Championship 2W-2D-6L · 8 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #23 of 24 45.3 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.0%
Automatic promotion 0.0%
Promotion playoffs 0.1%
Relegation 66.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Watford?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Watford's results were 3.0% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketWatfordLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 46.3% 51.0%
Both teams to score 51.2% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #23 1456 1463 1368
2025-26 Championship #22 1482 1599 1395
2024-25 Championship #23 1506 1568 1413
2023-24 Championship #16 1492 1571 1465
2022-23 Championship #14 1652 1671 1469
2021-22 Premier League #20 1518 1518 1269
2020-21 Championship #3 1642 1688 1674
2019-20 Premier League #18 1466 1495 1394
2018-19 Premier League #15 1520 1584 1439
2017-18 Premier League #17 1498 1565 1397
2016-17 Premier League #17 1502 1516 1383
2015-16 Premier League #16 1502 1569 1410
2014-15 Championship #2 1490 1677 1667
2013-14 Championship #16 1553 1596 1448
2012-13 Championship #6 1556 1640 1530
2011-12 Championship #8 1439 1570 1546
2010-11 Championship #20 1496 1594 1417
2009-10 Championship #16 1518 1559 1463
2008-09 Championship #10 1476 1542 1526
2007-08 Championship #18 1602 1685 1462
2005-06 Championship #4 1471 1660 1594

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 at Cardiff L Watford 23.7% · draw 27.4% L ✓
Oct 10, 2026 vs Burnley L Watford 32.3% · draw 30.1% L ✓
Sep 18, 2026 at Bristol City L Watford 25.0% · draw 28.7% L ✓
Sep 12, 2026 vs Stoke W Watford 41.0% · draw 32.1% L ✗

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