Watford
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #19 of 24 56.6 expected pts · currently 5 pts after 4 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 24 in Championship 57 pts · 14W-15D-17L · GD -12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Watford?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Watford's results were 3.0% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Watford | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.5% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Championship | #20 | 1456 | 1463 | 1452 |
| 2025-26 | Championship | #22 | 1482 | 1599 | 1395 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #23 | 1506 | 1568 | 1413 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #16 | 1492 | 1571 | 1465 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #14 | 1652 | 1671 | 1469 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #20 | 1518 | 1518 | 1269 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #3 | 1642 | 1688 | 1674 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #18 | 1466 | 1495 | 1394 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #15 | 1520 | 1584 | 1439 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #17 | 1498 | 1565 | 1397 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #17 | 1502 | 1516 | 1383 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #16 | 1502 | 1569 | 1410 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #2 | 1490 | 1677 | 1667 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #16 | 1553 | 1596 | 1448 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #6 | 1556 | 1640 | 1530 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #8 | 1439 | 1570 | 1546 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #20 | 1496 | 1594 | 1417 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #16 | 1518 | 1559 | 1463 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #10 | 1476 | 1542 | 1526 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #18 | 1602 | 1685 | 1462 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #4 | 1471 | 1660 | 1594 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Coventry | L Watford 24.3% · draw 25.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Middlesbrough | L Watford 13.8% · draw 21.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at West Brom | L Watford 25.4% · draw 30.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Sheffield United | W Watford 35.6% · draw 30.7% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Oxford | W Watford 38.0% · draw 30.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Charlton | W Watford 56.3% · draw 26.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at QPR | W Watford 41.4% · draw 29.1% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Leicester | W Watford 53.3% · draw 27.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Wrexham | W Watford 39.0% · draw 31.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Stoke | W Watford 39.6% · draw 29.9% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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