Shrewsbury
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #19 of 24 in League Two 49 pts · 13W–10D–23L · GD -27
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Shrewsbury?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 40 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Shrewsbury's results were 3.2% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Shrewsbury | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 47.5% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #17 | 1498 | 1525 | 1430 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #24 | 1386 | 1446 | 1301 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #21 | 1473 | 1473 | 1373 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #18 | 1466 | 1551 | 1440 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #15 | 1407 | 1532 | 1456 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #20 | 1442 | 1573 | 1410 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #20 | 1493 | 1551 | 1417 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #16 | 1483 | 1493 | 1457 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #8 | 1514 | 1644 | 1522 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #15 | 1409 | 1517 | 1463 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #19 | 1368 | 1480 | 1403 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #4 | 1594 | 1685 | 1626 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #24 | 1501 | 1513 | 1348 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #12 | 1489 | 1510 | 1503 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #2 | 1591 | 1665 | 1621 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #1 | 1476 | 1621 | 1621 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #19 | 1537 | 1591 | 1435 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #6 | 1429 | 1530 | 1523 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #22 | 1560 | 1573 | 1374 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #7 | 1514 | 1602 | 1537 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #8 | 1471 | 1549 | 1522 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Gillingham | L Shrewsbury 31.3% · draw 31.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Fleetwood Town | L Shrewsbury 33.8% · draw 31.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Crawley Town | L Shrewsbury 30.1% · draw 32.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Oldham | L Shrewsbury 30.0% · draw 29.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Bromley | L Shrewsbury 17.9% · draw 24.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Tranmere | W Shrewsbury 38.3% · draw 29.9% | W ✓ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Newport County | L Shrewsbury 33.6% · draw 31.1% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Crewe | L Shrewsbury 33.8% · draw 32.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Bristol Rvs | L Shrewsbury 23.8% · draw 30.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Cheltenham | W Shrewsbury 40.0% · draw 30.6% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/shrewsbury">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/shrewsbury">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>