Northampton

League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1240 · #24 League One 9W–8D–29L · 35 pts In line Updated May 02, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened

Final: #24 of 24 in League One 35 pts · 9W–8D–29L · GD -35

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.

Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Northampton?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Northampton's results were 9.5% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketNorthamptonLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 58.5% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.2% 53.2%
Both teams to score 51.2% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 League One #24 1480 1511 1240
2024-25 League One #17 1440 1488 1424
2023-24 League One #17 1410 1553 1452
2022-23 League Two #3 1595 1661 1609
2021-22 League Two #3 1540 1622 1603
2020-21 League One #19 1432 1461 1429
2019-20 League Two #10 1503 1608 1529
2018-19 League Two #7 1647 1647 1535
2017-18 League One #21 1426 1489 1416
2016-17 League One #18 1432 1522 1427
2015-16 League Two #1 1486 1743 1734
2014-15 League Two #20 1534 1571 1450
2013-14 League Two #10 1503 1525 1521
2012-13 League Two #9 1465 1595 1530
2011-12 League Two #18 1477 1510 1453
2010-11 League Two #17 1497 1519 1470
2009-10 League Two #9 1617 1625 1518
2008-09 League One #19 1584 1584 1416
2007-08 League One #5 1513 1599 1589
2006-07 League One #10 1502 1522 1522
2005-06 League Two #1 1502 1660 1659

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 02, 2026 vs Plymouth L Northampton 20.0% · draw 22.9% L ✓
Apr 28, 2026 vs Barnsley L Northampton 30.2% · draw 29.0% L ✓
Apr 25, 2026 at Cardiff L Northampton 2.9% · draw 6.9% L ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Doncaster L Northampton 28.6% · draw 29.8% L ✓
Apr 15, 2026 at Luton L Northampton 6.6% · draw 11.4% L ✓
Apr 06, 2026 vs Wigan L Northampton 31.9% · draw 29.1% L ✓
Apr 03, 2026 at Bradford L Northampton 8.4% · draw 14.2% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Mansfield L Northampton 16.5% · draw 23.2% L ✓
Mar 17, 2026 at Stockport L Northampton 15.9% · draw 21.1% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Burton W Northampton 35.6% · draw 31.3% L ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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