Middlesbrough
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #5 of 24 in Championship 80 pts · 22W–14D–10L · GD +25
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Middlesbrough?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Middlesbrough's results were 6.6% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Middlesbrough | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 39.0% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #7 | 1518 | 1643 | 1544 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #17 | 1584 | 1584 | 1472 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #2 | 1527 | 1590 | 1590 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #7 | 1498 | 1665 | 1578 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #9 | 1470 | 1582 | 1501 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #19 | 1458 | 1561 | 1453 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #16 | 1517 | 1550 | 1458 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #9 | 1586 | 1645 | 1526 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #5 | 1573 | 1607 | 1604 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #19 | 1498 | 1527 | 1318 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #3 | 1585 | 1727 | 1625 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #4 | 1557 | 1687 | 1610 |
| 2013-14 | Championship | #7 | 1379 | 1597 | 1560 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #23 | 1462 | 1610 | 1376 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #12 | 1566 | 1654 | 1488 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #4 | 1477 | 1591 | 1591 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #11 | 1502 | 1597 | 1515 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Wrexham | W Middlesbrough 44.7% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Watford | W Middlesbrough 65.1% · draw 21.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vs Sheffield Wednesday | W Middlesbrough 92.8% · draw 5.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Ipswich | L Middlesbrough 24.3% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Portsmouth | W Middlesbrough 68.0% · draw 19.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Swansea | W Middlesbrough 42.3% · draw 29.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Millwall | W Middlesbrough 55.6% · draw 25.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Blackburn | W Middlesbrough 44.5% · draw 28.1% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Bristol City | W Middlesbrough 67.6% · draw 20.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vs Charlton | W Middlesbrough 72.1% · draw 18.3% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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