Middlesbrough

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1638 · #4 Championship 6W-3D-1L · 21 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #3 of 24 78.7 expected pts · currently 21 pts after 10 matches

League title 14.7%
Promotion 45.6%
Automatic promotion 31.8%
Promotion playoffs 50.4%
Relegation 0.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Middlesbrough?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Middlesbrough's results were 6.6% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketMiddlesbroughLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 39.0% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.2% 51.0%
Both teams to score 51.2% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #4 1552 1638 1638
2025-26 Championship #7 1518 1643 1544
2024-25 Championship #17 1584 1584 1472
2023-24 Championship #2 1527 1590 1590
2022-23 Championship #7 1498 1665 1578
2021-22 Championship #9 1470 1582 1501
2020-21 Championship #19 1458 1561 1453
2019-20 Championship #16 1517 1550 1458
2018-19 Championship #9 1586 1645 1526
2017-18 Championship #5 1573 1607 1604
2016-17 Premier League #19 1498 1527 1318
2015-16 Championship #3 1585 1727 1625
2014-15 Championship #4 1557 1687 1610
2013-14 Championship #7 1379 1597 1560
2012-13 Championship #23 1462 1610 1376
2011-12 Championship #12 1566 1654 1488
2010-11 Championship #4 1477 1591 1591
2009-10 Championship #11 1502 1597 1515

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 13, 2026 at Stoke W Middlesbrough 42.0% · draw 28.6% W ✓
Oct 10, 2026 vs Wolves W Middlesbrough 42.2% · draw 29.8% W ✓
Sep 19, 2026 at Birmingham W Middlesbrough 38.7% · draw 29.5% D ✗
Sep 15, 2026 vs Millwall W Middlesbrough 54.6% · draw 25.7% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Norwich W Middlesbrough 54.5% · draw 27.1% W ✓

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