Southampton
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 24 in Championship 80 pts · 22W–14D–10L · GD +26
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Southampton?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Southampton's results were 3.2% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Southampton | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.2% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #1 | 1518 | 1694 | 1692 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #20 | 1482 | 1482 | 1233 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #5 | 1588 | 1703 | 1572 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #20 | 1478 | 1507 | 1301 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #18 | 1480 | 1552 | 1376 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #17 | 1482 | 1576 | 1391 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #8 | 1478 | 1549 | 1549 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #13 | 1498 | 1507 | 1448 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #16 | 1498 | 1518 | 1424 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #14 | 1498 | 1533 | 1444 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #2 | 1502 | 1633 | 1633 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #13 | 1482 | 1623 | 1481 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #5 | 1477 | 1648 | 1590 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #1 | 1580 | 1744 | 1744 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #1 | 1499 | 1687 | 1649 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #20 | 1462 | 1517 | 1435 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #14 | 1510 | 1549 | 1471 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #8 | 1517 | 1596 | 1554 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #10 | 1498 | 1556 | 1522 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Preston | W Southampton 50.1% · draw 25.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 28, 2026 | vs Ipswich | W Southampton 44.2% · draw 29.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Bristol City | W Southampton 78.1% · draw 14.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Swansea | W Southampton 49.1% · draw 26.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Blackburn | W Southampton 71.7% · draw 17.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Derby | W Southampton 61.0% · draw 23.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Wrexham | W Southampton 38.2% · draw 30.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Oxford | W Southampton 73.7% · draw 17.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Norwich | W Southampton 47.0% · draw 29.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Coventry | L Southampton 26.0% · draw 30.3% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/southampton">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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