Portsmouth
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #18 of 24 in Championship 55 pts · 14W–13D–19L · GD -15
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Portsmouth?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Portsmouth's results were 6.6% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Portsmouth | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.5% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 36.6% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #10 | 1529 | 1529 | 1517 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #11 | 1422 | 1525 | 1501 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #1 | 1543 | 1701 | 1687 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #7 | 1573 | 1648 | 1563 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #7 | 1512 | 1604 | 1586 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #14 | 1569 | 1676 | 1480 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #6 | 1548 | 1631 | 1596 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #4 | 1494 | 1648 | 1594 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #13 | 1474 | 1546 | 1480 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #1 | 1552 | 1679 | 1679 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #5 | 1503 | 1602 | 1570 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #14 | 1535 | 1584 | 1471 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #8 | 1470 | 1550 | 1543 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #22 | 1497 | 1505 | 1432 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #20 | 1482 | 1497 | 1392 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #16 | 1473 | 1564 | 1469 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Birmingham | L Portsmouth 30.9% · draw 30.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Stoke | L Portsmouth 28.2% · draw 29.9% | W ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Coventry | L Portsmouth 7.3% · draw 13.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Leicester | L Portsmouth 32.2% · draw 31.2% | W ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vs Ipswich | L Portsmouth 24.9% · draw 26.6% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Middlesbrough | L Portsmouth 12.5% · draw 19.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Oxford | W Portsmouth 56.7% · draw 25.3% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Norwich | L Portsmouth 26.8% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at QPR | W Portsmouth 37.6% · draw 30.2% | L ✗ |
| Mar 16, 2026 | vs Derby | W Portsmouth 37.5% · draw 31.5% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/portsmouth">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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