Portsmouth

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1482 · #15 Championship 3W-2D-4L · 11 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #14 of 24 59.9 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 9 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 1.6%
Automatic promotion 0.3%
Promotion playoffs 6.9%
Relegation 5.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Portsmouth?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Portsmouth's results were 6.6% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketPortsmouthLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 46.3% 51.0%
Both teams to score 36.6% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #15 1476 1510 1482
2025-26 Championship #10 1529 1529 1517
2024-25 Championship #11 1422 1525 1501
2023-24 League One #1 1543 1701 1687
2022-23 League One #7 1573 1648 1563
2021-22 League One #7 1512 1604 1586
2020-21 League One #14 1569 1676 1480
2019-20 League One #6 1548 1631 1596
2018-19 League One #4 1494 1648 1594
2017-18 League One #13 1474 1546 1480
2016-17 League Two #1 1552 1679 1679
2015-16 League Two #5 1503 1602 1570
2014-15 League Two #14 1535 1584 1471
2013-14 League Two #8 1470 1550 1543
2012-13 League One #22 1497 1505 1432
2011-12 Championship #20 1482 1497 1392
2010-11 Championship #16 1473 1564 1469

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 14, 2026 vs Sheffield United W Portsmouth 43.9% · draw 30.0% W ✓
Oct 11, 2026 at Southampton L Portsmouth 20.7% · draw 25.7% L ✓
Sep 19, 2026 vs Blackburn W Portsmouth 45.1% · draw 29.7% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Charlton W Portsmouth 36.5% · draw 30.3% D ✗

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