Norwich

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1481 · #16 Championship 3W-0D-7L · 9 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #13 of 24 60.2 expected pts · currently 9 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 2.0%
Automatic promotion 0.4%
Promotion playoffs 7.6%
Relegation 5.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Norwich?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Norwich's results were 4.7% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketNorwichLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 56.1% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.2% 51.0%
Both teams to score 61.0% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #16 1532 1570 1480
2025-26 Championship #5 1471 1618 1583
2024-25 Championship #21 1528 1593 1454
2023-24 Championship #7 1476 1614 1567
2022-23 Championship #18 1614 1662 1440
2021-22 Premier League #19 1466 1466 1281
2020-21 Championship #1 1682 1738 1685
2019-20 Premier League #20 1478 1498 1249
2018-19 Championship #1 1494 1712 1712
2017-18 Championship #12 1569 1601 1490
2016-17 Championship #6 1648 1660 1580
2015-16 Premier League #19 1467 1502 1355
2014-15 Championship #3 1586 1693 1659
2010-11 Championship #1 1402 1660 1650
2009-10 League One #3 1466 1719 1621
2008-09 Championship #24 1449 1485 1409
2007-08 Championship #17 1455 1588 1464
2006-07 Championship #18 1479 1555 1441
2005-06 Championship #12 1498 1571 1491

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 14, 2026 vs Southampton L Norwich 30.6% · draw 29.8% L ✓
Oct 10, 2026 at Swansea L Norwich 26.9% · draw 30.6% L ✓
Sep 20, 2026 vs Bolton W Norwich 62.1% · draw 21.7% L ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Middlesbrough L Norwich 18.4% · draw 27.1% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/norwich">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in): 

<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/championship"
        width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
        title="Championship title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/norwich">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>
Preview widget All widgets