Norwich
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 24 in Championship 65 pts · 19W–8D–19L · GD +7
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Norwich?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Norwich's results were 4.7% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Norwich | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.1% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #5 | 1471 | 1618 | 1583 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #21 | 1528 | 1593 | 1454 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #7 | 1476 | 1614 | 1567 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #18 | 1614 | 1662 | 1440 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #19 | 1466 | 1466 | 1281 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #1 | 1682 | 1738 | 1685 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #20 | 1478 | 1498 | 1249 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #1 | 1494 | 1712 | 1712 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #12 | 1569 | 1601 | 1490 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #6 | 1648 | 1660 | 1580 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #19 | 1467 | 1502 | 1355 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #3 | 1586 | 1693 | 1659 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #1 | 1402 | 1660 | 1650 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #3 | 1466 | 1719 | 1621 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #24 | 1449 | 1485 | 1409 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #17 | 1455 | 1588 | 1464 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #18 | 1479 | 1555 | 1441 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #12 | 1498 | 1571 | 1491 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Hull | W Norwich 35.1% · draw 31.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Swansea | W Norwich 55.4% · draw 25.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Derby | W Norwich 47.3% · draw 28.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Bristol City | W Norwich 35.6% · draw 31.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Ipswich | L Norwich 27.9% · draw 28.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Millwall | L Norwich 32.5% · draw 31.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Portsmouth | W Norwich 44.6% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Charlton | W Norwich 37.5% · draw 30.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | at Southampton | L Norwich 23.5% · draw 29.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Preston | W Norwich 64.8% · draw 20.7% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/norwich">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/championship"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Championship title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/norwich">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>