Sheffield United

Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1472 · #17 Championship 3W-3D-4L · 12 pts In line Updated Oct 14, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #17 of 24 58.4 expected pts · currently 12 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 1.0%
Automatic promotion 0.2%
Promotion playoffs 4.4%
Relegation 8.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Sheffield United?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Sheffield United's results were 1.5% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketSheffield UnitedLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 41.5% 51.0%
Both teams to score 48.8% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Championship #17 1497 1509 1472
2025-26 Championship #13 1466 1547 1494
2024-25 Championship #3 1633 1718 1602
2023-24 Premier League #20 1471 1471 1237
2022-23 Championship #3 1556 1669 1645
2021-22 Championship #4 1602 1630 1586
2020-21 Premier League #18 1467 1467 1360
2019-20 Premier League #10 1502 1570 1489
2018-19 Championship #2 1476 1691 1682
2017-18 Championship #11 1452 1598 1498
2016-17 League One #1 1481 1737 1737
2015-16 League One #10 1493 1600 1498
2014-15 League One #7 1556 1616 1518
2013-14 League One #4 1522 1610 1610
2012-13 League One #11 1615 1668 1505
2011-12 League One #3 1528 1670 1630
2010-11 Championship #21 1537 1537 1407
2009-10 Championship #8 1617 1658 1542
2008-09 Championship #1 1543 1676 1649
2007-08 Championship #6 1574 1609 1576
2005-06 Championship #3 1522 1688 1597

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 14, 2026 at Portsmouth L Sheffield United 26.1% · draw 30.0% L ✓
Oct 10, 2026 vs Lincoln W Sheffield United 41.5% · draw 30.8% W ✓
Sep 19, 2026 at Stoke L Sheffield United 31.9% · draw 31.3% L ✓
Sep 13, 2026 vs Wolves L Sheffield United 31.2% · draw 28.9% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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