Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
74%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #17
26%
Expected Total Games: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Ranking Trends

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #1 2025-05-19
  • 3 mo ago #1 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #1 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #1 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #2 2024-05-27

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #17 2025-05-19
  • 3 mo ago #9 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #8 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #6 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #6 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 80.8
ELO Rating: 11702.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2153.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 98.9
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 88.9

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 80.5
ELO Rating: 2313.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1896.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.4
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 28.1
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Jannik Sinner
vs
1
Andrey Rublev
Hard
2 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at Roland Garros, Jannik Sinner is set to face Andrey Rublev on the clay surface of one of tennis's most prestigious tournaments. Sinner, currently ranked 1st, is heavily favored to win with a probability of 74.13%, while Rublev holds a 25.87% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is approximately 35.

Match Analysis

Both players come into the match in solid form, with Sinner having a form index of 80.78 compared to Rublev’s 80.54. Sinner’s Elo rating stands at an impressive 11702, significantly higher than Rublev’s 2313.914. Notably, Sinner's surface strength index is exceptionally high at 98.89, showcasing his prowess on clay, while Rublev's is considerably lower at 22.01. The difference in their mean serve index is also notable, as Sinner's 98.08 surpasses Rublev’s 96.62 by more than 5 points, indicating Sinner's superior serving ability. In their recent performances, Sinner has dominated his last three matches, winning all without dropping a set, including a convincing victory over Richard Gasquet. In contrast, Rublev has also won his last three matches, but he faced a tougher challenge against Lloyd Harris, where he lost one set. Both players have logged the same cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes, but Sinner's consistency and form suggest he is better equipped for this matchup.

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's superior ranking, form, and exceptional performance on clay give him a distinct advantage going into this match. A key factor to monitor will be Sinner's serving effectiveness, as his ability to maintain a strong serve could heavily influence the outcome against Rublev.

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